THE story goes that Napoleon Bonaparte used to ask aspiring generals:
"Are you lucky?" The answer in the case of Justice Minister Nora Owen would have to be a resounding "No".
The new Minister and grand-niece of Michael Collins had barely settled into office when she had to contend with the biggest robbery in the history of the State, the £2.8 million theft from the Brinks Allied depot in Dublin in January last year.
When she assured the Dail there was no advance Garda intelligence about the raid, one newspaper published an internal memo which appeared to suggest the opposite.
Misfortune piled upon misfortune: there was the Lansdowne Road riot the following month; then the Cabinet shelved the plan to build Castlerea prison while she was out of the country. Justice is a "no-win" portfolio at the best of times, but Mrs Owen's losing streak seemed to go on forever.
This month has been the worst of all. Another big robbery in Waterford provoked startling and unprecedented criticism of a Government Minister by the deputy general secretary of the Garda Representative Association, P.J. Stone. A series of brutal murders received unrestrained media coverage, including a newspaper headline about crime in Dublin: "A City in Fear."
When a Minister for Justice goes to sleep at night, there is no knowing what he or she may have to contend with next morning.
Then there is the level of public expectation that goes with the portfolio. It is not enough any more to run the Department, keep the Garda Siochana ticking over, bring in some legislation and do the odd interview. These days the Minister for Justice has to be more than that: he/she has to be the parent figure who holds the public's hand as the shadows gather outside, doors creak and things go bump in the night.
Inevitably there are comparisons with her Fianna Fail predecessor, Maire Geoghegan-Quinn. Critics of Mrs Owen say "MGQ" had a better understanding of the Justice Minister's role in comforting and reassuring the public.
They say that last week there would have been TV footage of MGQ visiting checkpoints in the west where she would be seen engaging in grim-faced consultation with senior gardai.
The Galway West TD understands the media and the need to calm public fears; Nora Owen does not, the critics say. The Minister's supporters respond that touring checkpoints would have been a "cheap shot" and entirely inappropriate.
BROAD sympathy among politicians for the Minister's predicament is qualified by the knowledge that the deputy leader of Fine Gael could have had any portfolio she wanted, from Trade and Tourism ("happy valley") to Health ("tender loving care"), but chose the Justice crown of thorns and placed it on her own head.
There is also the recollection that in opposition she was one of the toughest performers, with no quarter asked and none given. "She was able to dish it out better than any man," a politically incorrect Fianna Fail TD recalls ruefully.
The case against Nora Owen goes something like this: she is not in control of her Department, and it shows; she has promised much and delivered little; not alone was she absent from Cabinet when the Castlerea prison project was shelved, but she failed to line up another Minister to fight on her behalf.
Her critics claim she lacks gravitas in TV and radio interviews; she has been dithering and indecisive in the row between the Garda Representative Association and the Garda Federation; she announced a referendum on bail, in line with Fine Gael policy, but nearly a year later it still hasn't happened; her legislative record in general has been virtually non-existent; she doesn't know enough about the law and has never even been a junior minister before.
"She has brought an awful lot of this upon herself," a senior figure in Fianna Fail says. "John Bruton has no choice but to take her out of Justice and put her in somewhere else."
But Mrs Owen's supporters point out there are no "quick-fix" solutions when you are dealing with issues like prison accommodation, the internal dispute in the Garda Siochana and the demand for changes in the laws on bail and the right to silence; but that the Minister has made substantial progress in many areas, and the critics should reserve final judgment until her term of office ends, probably in 1997.
The defence points out that Mrs Owen is bringing in legislation to deal with the dispute between the Garda Representative Association and the Garda Federation; that she brought in the same amount of legislation last year as her predecessor did in 1994; that she is to present proposals on the bail laws to Cabinet within six weeks; that the Castlerea project is back on stream and she is substantially increasing the number of prison places over a relatively short period.
She brought in a new Garda regional management structure; steered through the Court and Court Officers Bill, secured approval for the creation of 15 new judgeships and set up a working group on the establishment of a courts commission.
The Minister introduced measures to cut down on drug, abuse in prisons and in society in general; set up a bureau of fraud investigation and brought in the Transfer of Sentenced Persons Bill, allowing Irish nationals to apply to serve prison sentences at home with corresponding provisions for non-nationals in Irish prisons.
ORE discreetly, her supporters say the two left-wing parties in the Coalition don't always see it her way on law-and-order issues such as seven-day detention for drug traffickers, attempted reform of the bail laws and Castlerea prison. "Everything she's done, she's had to fight for it".
But left-wing Coalition sources say the problems arose because Nora Owen sought to "bounce" her Government colleagues into changing the laws on bail and seven-day detention without proper consultation.
These sources point out that she took a "solo run" on bail during a TV interview with Brian Farrell without consulting her colleagues first, and that they first read about her crackdown on drugs in the newspapers.
These were not the kind of tactics that win friends, especially when the Taoiseach is doing all in his power to ensure the smooth functioning of the three-party Government.
Nora Owen's supporters insist she will overcome her current difficulties, that she always gets what she wants at the end of the day. She won through eventually on Castlerea and the anti-drugs package and she will get her way on bail as well, say her defenders.
"She was ahead of the public mood on bail and the mood has followed her," senior Fine Gael sources said. They claimed the left-wing parties would not wish to stand against the wave of public opinion in favour of tougher measures against crime. Sources on the left say they will examine proposals on their merits.
"She's full of charm and smiles, but underneath it all she's very tough," say Fine Gael sources. They point to the way in which she "saw off" her party rival, former Minister John Boland, in the Dublin North constituency. "She knows what she wants to do: tip the balance against the criminals while maintaining civil liberties.
The impeccably right-wing Brendan McGahon, toughest of the hardliners in Fine Gael, says it is wrong to blame our law-and-order problems on individual politicians.
"It's not Nora Owen - it's the whole system and the Department of Justice. Ministers, no matter what party they are, are basically figureheads," he says.
But opponents such as the energetic John O'Donoghue, Fianna Fail's justice spokesman, and the equally persistent Liz O'Donnell of the Progressive Democrats will not let the Minister off the hook so easily. Nora Owen needs to get real lucky real soon.