Wicklow's diverse electorate makes for open race

With two of its five TDs retiring, the constituency of Wicklow is an open electoral race, where four of the main parties are …

With two of its five TDs retiring, the constituency of Wicklow is an open electoral race, where four of the main parties are all in with a chance of filling either of these two vacancies.

The big challenge for the candidates in Wickow lies in the diversity of the electorate, comprising a number of distinct and disparate groups of voters, all with their own distinct priorities.

These include long-standing rural communities, new commuter towns and established Dublin suburbs.

In addition the county is divided by a mountain range, making west Wicklow a very different region to the east and south of the county.

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The diversity is often reflected in those who have been elected here, with socially liberal politicians like Fine Gael's Gemma Hussey and Labour's Liz McManus elected alongside traditional rural conservative TDs like Mildred Fox.

The seats of the sitting TDs, the Minister for the Environment Dick Roche, Labour deputy leader Liz McManus, and Fine Gael's Billy Timmins, are all considered relatively safe, but the final two seats are wide open.

The openness of the race here has been generated by the decision of Fox, and of long-standing Fianna Fáil TD Joe Jacob, to retire. With no obvious successor to either TD, it leaves Labour, Fine Gael, the Green Party and Fianna Fáil in a four-way fight for the two seats.

Wicklow is possibly the top of the list of targets for the Green Party. Its candidate Déirdre de Búrca has enjoyed a high profile on Wicklow County Council and Bray County Council. She took just under 6 per cent of the vote and will be hoping to nearly double this at the election.

Labour will also be hopeful of taking a second seat in the constituency, with its candidate Nicky Kelly, who lost out in 2002 to Mildred Fox by just 19 votes. Kelly's base is in Arklow, the same as Fianna Fáil candidate Pat Fitzgerald. Both will be relying on the fact that the town, one of the fastest growing in the country, has no TD.

Fine Gael is also targeting the constituency for a second seat with candidate Andrew Doyle, a highly popular councillor and farmer from Roundwood. He is expected to take a considerable portion of the rural vote that usually went to Mildred Fox.

The final candidate with a strong chance is sitting Fianna Fáil councillor and teacher Joe Behan in Bray.

These candidates enjoy strong geographical or social base supports, but the key to success will be to improve their appeal beyond their social or geographic base.

The commuter vote will be a key element in the election, with the population of the constituency having increased by 10 per cent since the last election. Issues such as services and public transport will be crucial.

Sinn Féin is fielding Bray town councillor John Brady, but party support in Wicklow is not seen as sufficient at present for Sinn Féin to mount a serious challenge.

The independent candidates are all seen as having insufficient support to gain a seat. These include Evelyn Cawley and former FF councillor Pat Doran. Charlie Keddy and fathers' rights campaigner Norman Newell.

It is likely to be a close race for the final two seats, but even at this stage Fianna Fáil is unlikely to retain its second TD.

The infighting within the party at a local level means the discipline and coordination needed for vote management is absent.

The Green Party should generate sufficient votes across the county to see Déirdre de Búrca elected.

This would leave the final seat between Andrew Doyle of Fine Gael and Nicky Kelly of the Labour party. Kelly may enjoy a profile as a miscarriage of justice victim, but it is more likely that Fine Gael can combine its rural vote and support in Greystones and Wicklow town to see Doyle elected ahead of Kelly.

Local Issues

The commuter influx has pushed issues such as access to schools, crèches public transport and social facilities to the top of the agenda in many parts of the county. Having been the victim of widespread illegal dumping in 2000 and 2001, the environment remains a big issue in Co Wicklow. Local development controversies in Arklow, Greystones and Bray also feature in the campaign

VERDICT
FG - 2 FF - 1 Lab -1 ... GP - 1

Fine Gael and Green Party gain at expense of Fianna Fáil and Independent. Outgoing TDs Constituency profile: Wicklow (Five seats) Candidates