Europe's proposed constitution will be the big issue for the EU in 2005, writes Denis Staunton. And José Manuel Barroso will have to work hard to restore his standing.
After this year's excitement and controversy surrounding the heads of government agreement of the European Union's first constitution, the appointment of a new commission and the decision to start membership talks with Turkey, 2005 promises fewer institutional changes for the EU.
Political events outside Brussels could, however, have a far-reaching impact on Europe's future, particularly if voters in one or more countries reject the constitution.
Next year will be a crucial one for the new Commission President, José Manuel Barroso, who needs to recover authority after the mishaps which delayed his Commission's appointment in November. Ireland's Commissioner, Charlie McCreevy, will have a chance to put his personal stamp on the important Internal Market portfolio and to consolidate his transformation from a combative, national politician into a consensus-seeking European.
Next year will also determine how serious the Taoiseach is about his promise to build on the success of Ireland's EU presidency by strengthening ties with other European countries and ensuring that Ireland remains close to the centre of the European political debate.
Luxembourg's six-month presidency, which begins on January 1st, will see the start of serious negotiations over the EU's next budget period, from 2007 to 2013. The Prime Minister of Luxembourg, Jean-Claude Juncker, believes that he can find a compromise between the demand of richer countries that the EU budget should be capped at 1 per cent of Gross National Income (GNI) - about €815 billion - and calls from both the Commission and some poorer countries for a ceiling of 1.14 per cent of GNI - about €930 billion.
Mr Barroso has urged EU leaders to find agreement on the budget by June or risk holding up the entire European project. "Without a deal on time, fulfilment of the political priorities that the 25 member-states have agreed upon will be delayed, and Europe cannot afford that to happen," he said.
Few observers in Brussels expect agreement so soon, however, not least because of a succession of referendums on the constitution, and most predict that the task of clinching a deal will fall to the Austrian presidency in the first half of 2006.
Spain will be the first country to hold a referendum on the constitution - on February 20th - but by the end of 2005 many of those countries which have promised to put the treaty to a vote will have done so.
The most crucial vote could be in France, where a referendum is expected in May and where a rejection would probably spell the end of the constitution altogether. The decision of the opposition Socialists to back the constitution has improved its chances of being approved, but some analysts believe that the decision to start EU membership talks with Turkey could boost the numbers voting against.
The Netherlands is another founding member-state which could reject the constitution in a referendum, although opinion polls show a majority in favour of it.
Mr Geert Wilders, a right-wing populist whose popularity is soaring among voters, has vowed to campaign against the constitution in protest against the decision to open talks with Turkey. "If the EU constitution is not adopted, Turkey will gain less influence on legislation in Europe," he said.
The Government has yet to name the date of Ireland's referendum, which is likely to be held in late 2005 or early 2006. Some ministers favour leaving the vote as late as possible to ensure that the public has enough time to consider all the issues and - they hope - to conclude that the constitution presents no threat to Irish interests.
If the constitution is rejected in one or two countries, such as Britain, Ireland or the Czech Republic, those countries will come under pressure to agree to a form of associate membership of the EU. If France joins those who reject the constitution, the EU will probably struggle along without it, perhaps with groups of countries choosing to co-operate more closely throughout the EU treaties.
With his engaging public manner and fluency in four European languages, Mr Barroso ought to be a valuable asset to governments seeking to sell the EU to voters. The Commission President's mishandling of the controversy surrounding Rocco Buttiglione, the Italian commissioner-designate forced to withdraw because of his controversial views on gays and women, has damaged his authority, however, and he has yet to dispel doubts in Brussels about his leadership style and his alleged unwillingness to listen to advice from colleagues.
Mr McCreevy has made a good impression in the Berlaymont and in the European Parliament during his first weeks in office. But he will be tested in the coming months as he seeks to push through controversial initiatives such as the Services Directive, which aims to liberalise the market for services in the EU.
Mr McCreevy's appointment to the Internal Market post was a tribute to his standing as a successful finance minister, but it also reflected Ireland's enhanced status in the EU following the triumphant six months of the EU presidency. The Taoiseach has promised to consolidate that position by, among other moves, opening new Irish embassies in central and eastern Europe.
The Department of Finance has approved the new embassies but has specified that they must be funded within existing resources. This means that no new staff will be recruited and that the Department of Foreign Affairs will be obliged to make cuts elsewhere to fill posts in the new missions.
Such penny-pinching could represent a false economy, as Ireland will need the support of the broadest possible range of allies if it is to pursue its interests in an expanded EU.
The trans-atlantic relationship will remain high on the agenda in 2005 and President Bush will seek to mend fences with European allies when he visits Brussels on February 22nd.
Elections in Iraq could help to reduce enduring tensions over the war there, but other issues, including Iran, climate change, trade disputes and the soaring dollar, are likely to remain contentious.
The EU's new ambassador in Washington, John Bruton, could play an important role in 2005 by explaining the EU to Americans and, perhaps as importantly, helping his masters in Brussels to understand how America is thinking.