Separatist rebels are now building barricades in the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine as government forces press in after success in clearing them from former strongholds in the towns of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. The insurgents have blown as many as seven bridges in their retreat to slow the government advance, but appear also to have lost control of key access points to the cities, jeopardising supply lines.
The Ukrainian government's ill-equipped and under-trained forces have struggled unsuccessfully since April, after Moscow annexed Crimea in March, to contain the rebels. The recapture of Slovyansk, however, marks a critical turning point of "incredible symbolic importance", newly-elected President Petro Poroshenko argues. The latter, who has revitalised the army, ignored calls from both Russia and the EU to extend a ceasefire that ran out a week ago, arguing that the rebels had refused to abide by it, decided to go on the offence, and seems to have turned the tide.
Slovyansk, a city of 100,000 people, had been the epicentre of fighting, and its loss represents a major strategic and psychological blow to the rebels just as the reality began to sink in that had also reached the limits of Russian assistance. President Putin, who warned last week that he would not stand by while the safety of Russians was endangered, has been largely silent in recent days. The Kremlin appears to have taken the option of military intervention off the table, in favour of a negotiated settlement that might install allies as governors of Donetsk and Luhansk and agree a strong regional autonomy deal.
For Kiev, pressing on to take Donetsk or Luhansk from rebels, its stated intention, will be another matter. Potentially very costly. Cities of nearly one million and 400,000 respectively, their invasion could involve dangerous and prolonged urban warfare and high numbers of civilian casualties. At a meeting on Monday with Poroshenko, city mayor Olexander Lukyanchenko urged him not use air strikes: “We have a population in the town now of more than 900,000 people minus those who have left. It’s impossible to evacuate them and there is nowhere for them to go. Their security must be guaranteed via negotiations at all levels.” A siege could create a humanitarian disaster.
But getting insurgents into talks may also prove just as difficult – on July 2nd the foreign ministers of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany met in Berlin and agreed on further negotiations, but on Sunday representatives of the contact group of Ukraine, Russia and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe met in Kiev and had to adjourn because of the absence of rebels. Despite the setbacks they show little inclination for dialogue, a situation that perhaps a more proactive and supportive Moscow could help change.