The twin attacks against Coptic Christian churches on Palm Sunday have presented Islamic State’s biggest challenge yet to the rule of Egyptian president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.
Bombs killed 27 at St George's Church at Tanta, 94km north of Cairo, and 22 at St Mark's Cathedral in the port city of Alexandria, making these attacks the deadliest against the Copts – who make up 10-14 per cent of Egypt's 92 million people – in the country's recent history.
In the aftermath of the bombings, Egypt’s cabinet on Monday approved a three-month state of emergency in the country.
On a rising tide of "Sisi mania", the president won 97 per cent of the vote in the 2014 election by pledging to end unrest stirred by the Muslim Brotherhood following the 2013 ousting of president Mohamed Morsi, a Brotherhood veteran. As former head of military intelligence and army chief, Sisi has instead seen Islamic State attacks multiply and grow ever more deadly.
Copts have become targets because they have supported Sisi and relied on him for protection. The Copts have, however, begun to believe their backing has been misplaced.
‘Security lapse’
Al-Bawaba
, a pro-Sisi newspaper, was confiscated by the authorities after it carried an article calling the bombings a “major security lapse”, urging the government to hold the perpetrators accountable, and demanding a new strategy for combating terrorism. Commentators in other media have repeatedly accused the government of detaining scores of liberal dissidents and critics while failing to tackle jihadi terrorism.
In December last year, a suicide bomber killed 29 worshippers at St Peter and St Paul’s Church in central Cairo and Islamic State fighters have driven hundreds of Copts from northern Sinai, the main base of the group’s local affiliate, Ansar Beit al-Maqdis.
A video released in February called for war against “idolators”: Christians, Muslims and others who do not subscribe to Islamic State’s ultra-puritan ideology.
While the group is being squeezed in Iraq and Syria, it seems to be gaining strength in Egypt. Sisi's failure to stabilise the economy, his second most important task, and improve the lives of the people has contributed to alienation and radicalisation.
Inflation and unemployment
He has focused on high-profile projects, like the unprofitable expansion of the Suez Canal, instead of building roads, schools and clinics, and reforming the bureaucracy which wraps local and potential foreign investors in red tape. Tourism, a foreign currency earner and employer, has collapsed. To qualify for a $12 billion International Monetary Fund loan, Sisi has tinkered with subsidies which keep the poor afloat and devalued Egypt’s currency.
Consequently, inflation has soared from 14 to over 30 per cent. Youth unemployment has reached 40 per cent,
When protests over food shortages, rising prices and the threat to lift the bread subsidy erupted in mid-March, demonstrators took to the streets shouting, “Down with Sisi”.
Gen Mohamed Mansour was caught on video telling Egyptians to "sacrifice their dinners" to help rebuild the economy, sparking social media outrage.
Until grievances are addressed, Islamic State, al-Qaeda and their offshoots are certain to gather recruits from the rebellious, vengeful, undereducated and unemployed in Egypt, across the Arab world and in the banlieus of Europe.