A few weeks ago the answer to the question would have been No. Now it has changed to possibly, probably or definitely – depending on the speaker in the increasingly bitter debate. Privately, a few in Labour already fear that the campaign to save the union is lost, while some Liberal Democrats are expressing astonishment at some of the people they know who plan to vote Yes.
A flurry of polls expected in the coming days will heighten the mounting sense of alarm, or calm it, depending on the figures – but rumours abound of a Sunday newspaper poll tomorrow that gives Yes the lead.
Scottish streets reveal much about the debate: Yes posters and stickers are hugely visible; those for the Better Together campaign are fewer in number.
No voters are much less public and have become even more so in the face of an increasingly vocal Yes campaign, with some unwilling to express their opinions publicly. The concerns that led most of these people to the No camp – love of the union, sterling, pensions, welfare – have not changed, so the fact that they are silent does not mean that they have disappeared.
Two years ago the polls put the No camp ahead by two to one, but Yes campaigners insisted: (a) the polls were wrong, and (b) matters would tighten in the final weeks.
Up until recent days, less than a third of Scots said they believed an independent Scotland would be economically better off. In June just 30 per cent told YouGov that they believed that. A fortnight ago the number had risen to 32 per cent. This week, it was 35 per cent. However, pessimists still outnumber optimists – 44 per cent believe Scotland will be worse off. Curiously, it is difficult to find facts to justify the change. Emotion is now playing its part.
Facts are being shoehorned to suit the decision voters have made. Alex Salmond, for example, has not answered questions about the currency, yet the issue is not hurting him.
In fact, sizeable numbers of voters seem to be reacting with irritation every time the issue is raised by Better Together – believing that London’s threats are just a bluff.
From the off, the Yes campaign has been dominated by the Scottish National Party – a fact that has caused internal divisions with Yes Scotland, but at least it offered some form of coherence.
The pro-union campaign, meanwhile, has been riddled with bitter enmities from the off: former Labour leader Gordon Brown would not sit with Tories, and the Yes side has tried to tarnish Alistair Darling for doing so.
Meanwhile, the leader of the Scottish Conservatives, Ruth Davidson, has discounted David Cameron's chances of winning next year's general election – in a bid to dissuade Tory-hating Scots from voting Yes.
