Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy stood in a hall in Neilston, a town in his constituency outside Glasgow, and remembered a night of triumph in another hall just down the road 18 years ago.
Back then, in the first flush of New Labour’s joyful youth, Murphy had taken a seat that had only been held by Labour once before – in 1922, when it was won by Robert Nicholl, and held for just 23 months.
Murphy, recalling his success in 1997, said locals such as David Arthur, a party member for 70 years, had struggled unsuccessfully for decades to oust the Tories. “Their faces were a mixture of disbelief and shock, replaced quickly with hope and joy,” said Murphy. “I remember that feeling of possibility that came from having ended 18 years of Tory rule.”
On May 7th, it is the Scottish National Party (SNP) that wants, that intends to share that feeling of triumph, with some believing that even Murphy could be defeated. One opinion poll, from Michael Ashcroft, put Labour just a point ahead in the constituency, though it is flawed in that those surveyed were given a choice of just parties to choose from, not candidates.
Nevertheless, Murphy, recently elected as Scottish Labour leader, faces a tough challenge to restore his party’s fortunes in Scotland, with even outgoing Labour MPs privately admitting they haven’t a prayer.
In Dundee, Jim McGovern, who represented one of the city’s two constituencies for a decade, sensationally withdrew his name just a week before nominations closed.
McGovern’s decision is being blamed on heart trouble, though it will not have been helped by the decision from headquarters to pull campaign resources away from him, believing that his seat could not be held.
Retrenchment
Similar retrenchment has happened elsewhere, with much of the resources being sent to hold seats such as those of party deputy leader
Margaret Curran
in Glasgow, where the party’s vote was once weighed, not counted.
For now, Murphy is attempting to get oxygen for his message that a vote for the Scottish National Party will simply put David Cameron back in Downing Street. Last Friday, it was alleged SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon had told a French diplomat she favoured a Conservative victory, though the details of the allegations have been roundly rejected as inaccurate.
Despite denials, however, many in Scotland believe it to be true. Murphy, describing the SNP as “Cameron’s little helpers”, intends to play heavily on this theme in the weeks ahead.
Sturgeon, he says, urges the Scots to vote for the SNP, the Welsh to vote for Plaid Cymru and the English to vote for the Greens, yet she still says that she wants Labour to form a minority Westminster government, not the Tories.
“We can argue about the finer points of constitutional process, but one thing is unarguable: we won’t get a Labour government without voting for one,” Murphy told his supporters. For decades, Scots have complained “that it was the people in England that voted to give Scotland Tory rule”, he went on, but this time Labour is “ahead in Wales, in all the cities of the north of England, and far ahead in London.
“It would be deeply ironic if the only people in the United Kingdom that stood in the way of a Labour government were Scottish National Party MPs in Scotland,” he said.
The question is whether Labour can get a hearing: it has been badly damaged by its association last year with the Tories in their campaign to defeat the Scottish independence referendum, even in the eyes of some of those who voted No.
The logic of the criticism is questionable, even allowing for the toxicity of the Tory brand in Scotland, since individual pro- union campaigns would have put them at a massive disadvantage compared to the SNP-controlled Yes, Scotland monolith.
Serious trouble
Nevertheless, public feeling is public feeling. Privately, many in Labour concede that dozens of its 41 outgoing Scottish seats are gone, or in serious trouble; perhaps, more. However, every percentage point of support that can be clawed back between now and May 7th could prevent a drubbing from turning into a rout, given the majorities being defended by Labour in some constituencies are so big.
Most of the Glasgow seats, which are effectively straight head-to-head battles with the SNP, probably cannot be rescued, bar some atypical mistake by the SNP in the final weeks of campaigning.
However, the seats where other parties, particularly the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives, secured reasonable support in the past are now being mostly targeted by Labour. There, Labour will seek backing from those who voted No last year and would do so now; from those who recoil from Alex Salmond – not a small number; or those uncomfortable about the SNP's dominance at all levels of Scottish politics.
