The citizenship referendum campaign is getting under way with the Yes side significantly ahead, writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent
After a bitter political debate over the timing of this referendum on citizenship, this poll gives the Government considerable cause for satisfaction.
With 54 per cent recorded as intending to vote Yes, 24 per cent voting No, and 22 per cent undecided, there is currently a margin of over two to one in favour. However, the poll was taken last Tuesday and Wednesday, some 23 days before polling. While the political parties had lined up on either side of the debate at that point, the campaigns themselves had not yet got under way.
Fianna Fáil launched its Yes campaign just yesterday. Labour launched its No campaign over a week ago, but the Green Party and Sinn Féin only held press conferences to announce theirs at the end of last week. Fine Gael intends to hold a press conference seeking a Yes vote before polling day.
Public opinion on referendums has swung dramatically in the course of past campaigns. The first Nice referendum campaign began with polls showing solid support for the EU treaty, only for this to turn into a No vote on the day. The referendums on divorce also saw marked changes as campaigns got under way.
The fact that some 22 per cent are still undecided at this point means that the gap could be narrowed if there is a vigorous and well-argued No campaign.
Having said that, party campaigns on this occasion are likely to be more low key and to have less impact.
The party organisations are consumed with maximising their representation in local government and in the European Parliament.
All say that their canvassers in those elections will also be passing on the party's position on the citizenship issue. Realistically, many canvassing teams are considered unlikely to distract attention from their primary task of getting candidates elected to engage in discussions on citizenship.
Canvassers from parties on both sides of the debate report that the topic is being raised very little, and then only by people asking what the referendum is about.
Campaigners for No say they are relieved that a statement of opposition to the proposal on doorsteps is not leading to voters attacking them for supporting an overly liberal immigration regime.
Fianna Fáil sources say they are spending over €200,000 on the campaign, and will be delivering leaflets to every house as well as producing a poster campaign seeing a Yes vote.
Labour says it will have a "limited" number of posters as well as leaflets.
Parties are generally conserving financial resources for the local and European elections.
While there is broad support for the proposal across all age groups, social classes, regions and party supporters, it is interesting that there are somewhat smaller majorities in favour among the youngest and oldest groups of voters.
It is not possible to say with certainty why this is but the experience of the young is likely to be more international than that of older voters, while the over 65s may be the ones with the greatest experience of emigration.
The current gap of 54/24, therefore, represents a gap that seems unlikely to be bridged before polling day.
To make a change to something as fundamental as the constitutional position concerning the right of citizenship, the Government would hope to have a convincing victory to show that there is broad support for the change. It could yet get that if the Yes campaign is conducted with enthusiasm.