SPAIN:The reigning Socialists are facing a real challenge from the Partido Popular as the campaign opens, writes Jane Walkerin Madrid
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, Spain's prime minister, said recently that he never listened to opinion polls. If he broke with his habit this week he would be a very worried man, with polls showing he is teetering on the verge of defeat in next month's general elections.
They show that the vote will result in a hung parliament, with small regional parties holding the balance of power.
The distance between the Socialists (PSOE) - who won 42.5 per cent in the last election in 2004 - and the conservative opposition Popular Party (PP) who won 37.7 per cent - has narrowed to less than two percentage points.
The last general elections were held only three days after the Madrid train massacre in which almost 200 people died and more than a thousand were seriously injured. The conservatives had been expected to win that contest, but were beaten in a last-minute upset blamed on the bombing.
Many voters suspect that the PP tried to blame Basque terrorists and to cover up evidence that the atrocity had been perpetrated by Islamic fundamentalists to punish the PP and its then prime minister, José María Aznar, for forming an alliance with George Bush and Tony Blair in the invasion of Iraq.
The PP, under Aznar's successor, Mariano Rajoy, has appeared unable to accept its defeat at the ballot boxes. The past four years have seen some of the most bitter political tension in Spain since the restoration of democracy. Ugly scenes have been a regular occurrence in the Spanish parliament with the opposition party being obstructive at every turn.
Until 2004 there has been a long-standing tradition that opposition parties supported the government of the day in the fight against Eta. But the anti-terrorist consensus collapsed during this legislature with the PP accusing the government of giving in to Eta demands by holding secret talks.
Although Eta has been seriously weakened by arrests of its leaders in both France and Spain, Basque terrorism remains a threat. Interior minister Alfredo Rubalcaba yesterday announced that security forces had been placed on maximum alert and would be patrolling airports, stations and other sensitive areas between now and March 9th. "We believe that Eta will try to attack during the campaign," he warned.
The election comes at a time of international economic difficulties, many of which have affected the previously healthy Spanish economy. Having been told that the economy was booming, Spaniards cannot understand why prices and unemployment - which now stands at 1.9 million, the highest in 24 years - have suddenly increased dramatically; many of them blame the government.
The economy minister, Pedro Solbes, tried to put a brave face on the situation. "It is true that inflation was 3 per cent in 2003, but a barrel of oil only cost $28. Last year our inflation rose to 4.3 per cent, but oil now costs $72.5 a barrel," he explained.
There is no tradition in Spain of pre-election debates between party leaders. The last two, between Felipe Gonzalez, the first Socialist prime minister after the end of the Franco dictatorship, and Aznar, were held a decade ago. Since then planned debates have come to nothing as parties bickered over format and content.
However, this time an agreement has been brokered that Zapatero and Rajoy will go head-to-head next Monday and then again the following week. The state-run RTVE will broadcast the debate - moderated by a non-political commentator and staged on neutral territory.
The private channels will be free to air it if they choose although most have refused the invitation.
The campaign officially started yesterday at midnight when political leaders took to the streets with paste buckets, brushes and posters asking for support. In fact most people could have been forgiven for thinking it had been under way for weeks as party leaders swept the country with a series of "pre-campaign" rallies, meetings and speeches.
The two main leaders have made their pledges to the electorate, some feasible and others less so. Zapatero has promised to grant a €400 rebate on income tax, to create new jobs and build schools and hospitals.
Rajoy has pledged to eliminate income tax for anyone earning less than €16,000 a year. Several clauses in the PP's election manifesto, including restrictions on immigration, are modelled on those used by French president Nicolas Sarkozy in his successful campaign last year.
The party's secretary for economy and employment, Miguel Arias Cañete, blames immigration for what he describes as "the collapse in hospital emergency services". "In Ecuador a woman would have to pay nine months' wages for a mammogram. Here they can get it done in 15 minutes," he said.
He called for restrictions on the wearing of head scarves and head coverings in schools and promised to introduce compulsory courses to instruct immigrants in the Spanish language and the customs and laws of the country.
The next two weeks will be critical for all parties but unless there is a dramatic change in the fortunes of the main parties, the small regional groupings will determine who holds the levers of power.