Everything I write about Pope Francis regarding retirement or slowing down should probably be read in the light of my last papal prediction. As my family delight in reminding me, I was certain that Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI would be dead within a year of retirement.
It was not that I wished the poor man any harm. I just believed that he would not retire unless he felt he was too impaired to continue but was also not in imminent danger of death. A year seemed reasonable.
Nine years later, if not exactly hale and hearty at 95, Benedict is still very much with us.
So when I predict that Francis has very little intention of slowing down, much less retiring, I have probably guaranteed that he will make a dramatic exit within the month. Not that I wish the current pope any harm, either.
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While I would not class myself as a “my pope, right or wrong” type, more as a “my vicar of Christ, so therefore inclined to give him all due respect” type, it has always struck me as ironic that people are so picky about their popes.
Certain Catholics practically spit when they mention Pope John Paul II or Benedict, so incensed are they at the alleged harm both have done to the church.
Other Catholics become a la carte about loyalty to the papacy under Francis as pope, while others have him canonised already.
Francis’s focus on the environment, people on the margins and the right to life are all gifts to the church. His humanity is very appealing.
He is less considered about what he says than previous popes, so he is also a gift to the media, who cannot wait for him to board a plane because he is certain to generate headlines.
At 85, Francis knows that he will not live forever. He has appointed nearly two-thirds of those who will vote for the next pope but if they do not know each other, it will be more difficult for a consensus to emerge
Following his Canadian visit where he had to resort to using a wheelchair, he declared that due to his age and limitations, he will have to save his energy or perhaps think about the possibility of stepping aside.
The rumour machine had been in overdrive since his June announcement that he would be visiting L’Aquila in Italy at the end of this month. It is the burial place of Pope Celestine V, who was the first pope to resign in 1294.
Benedict visited L’Aquila and left his pallium (a white woollen band worn as a symbol of episcopal authority) at the tomb. This has been breathlessly interpreted as a symbol that he planned to resign. Few accounts mention that this happened in 2009 and that he did not retire until 2013. If Francis follows that particular precedent, he will be firmly ensconced until 2026.
Others have pointed out that Francis recently announced 21 new cardinals, and that there will be an extraordinary consistory (meeting of cardinals) around the time of the visit to L’Aquila.
Again, this is being interpreted as a signal that Francis intends to retire. Perhaps it is, but it may be his innate pragmatism coming to the fore. Due to three factors, that is, Covid-19, the fact that Francis often appoints cardinals in far-flung places, and that there has not been an extraordinary consistory since 2015, many of the cardinals do not know each other.
At 85, Francis knows that he will not live forever. He has appointed nearly two-thirds of those who will vote for the next pope but if they do not know each other, it will be more difficult for a consensus to emerge.
Some have suggested that since he was appointed in the hope that he would reform the curia, given that a new Vatican constitution came into play on June 5th, this could mark an end to his papacy.
Knowing the glacial pace of Vatican reform, a new constitution probably marks the beginning of a process rather than an ending.
Then there is the pope’s restless, dynamic personality. In July 2021, he had a significant part of his colon removed. (He had part of one lung removed in 1957, and also has chronic, painful sciatica and osteoarthritis in his knees.) Within five days of his colon surgery, he was making phone calls and statements on world events.
He does not use the papal residence at Castel Gandolfo for holidays, to the distress of local residents who have seen a thriving tourist industry based on the presence of the pope collapse. It is not clear that he takes any real holidays.
Although forced to postpone his trip to the Democratic Republic of Congo and South Sudan, Francis is still determined to go. He also wants to visit Ukraine but preferably after a visit to Russia.
In September, he will beatify the “smiling pope”, Pope John Paul I, whose papacy lasted only 33 days. Francis is also due to attend a meeting of world religious leaders in September. Then, there is the small matter of the October 2023 Synod, the culmination of two years of worldwide consultations designed to have an impact on the way the church conducts itself forever.
If this constitutes slowing down, goodness knows what full speed ahead would look like.