Varadkar must envy Sturgeon’s ability to connect with voters and speak a language they understand

The paradoxes of politics are indeed numerous. Nicola Sturgeon has been one of the outstanding politicians of the last decade, a standing rebuke to an underwhelming generation of British political leaders.

But she is leaving office with her great ambition and the animating objective of her party unfulfilled, and with no immediate prospect of success. Yes, she has made the Scottish National Party into the natural party of government in her country, achieving a domestic political dominance at which other parties can only marvel.

But independence for Scotland seems as far off now as ever; and perhaps, with the hard Brexit she was powerless to stop and the hard border between England and Scotland that independence would now mean, it’s farther away than ever.

Varadkar’s promise to his TDs during the 2017 leadership contest to reach the voters of a new Ireland went starkly unrealised at the 2020 general election

Scottish nationalism has thrived; Scottish separatism seems stuck in a cul-de-sac. Sturgeon’s political abilities could not change the ebbing tide, leaving a curious on-the-one-hand, on-the-other legacy. Perhaps a mixed judgment from history is the best that politicians can hope for. Look at Bertie Ahern.

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There are lessons and illuminations aplenty for Irish political leaders from Sturgeon’s successes and failures. Mary Lou McDonald is perhaps the Irish political leader who most resembles Sturgeon. You could see Sinn Féin bossing Irish politics in the future, yet still failing to achieve the united Ireland that is the party’s chief ambition.

Certainly, the results of the North and South series for The Irish Times and ARINS published in recent months would suggest that referendums that vote to abolish the Border in Ireland are at best a long way off. The SNP has combined nationalism with governing as a large-state, centre-left party, in a way that Sinn Féin surely finds attractive. But that model is now under pressure, with a constitutional roadblock in place, public services creaking ominously and public servants on strike.

Sure, Sturgeon has been able to blame the Tories in London on both fronts, and in Belfast that route has also been open to McDonald’s colleagues. In Dublin, a Sinn Féin government would have no such excuse when the desires of ministers and the demands of interest groups exceed – as they always will – the resources available.

A Sinn Féin government would have to stand on its own two feet; ourselves alone, if you like. How to cope when some of its supporters, enthused by promises in opposition, howl betrayal at Sinn Féin in government is something that should be uppermost in the party’s preparations for government.

Another cautionary signal for Sinn Féin from Sturgeon’s departure is how an inflammatory social issue – in her case, the rights of transgender people, and how they affect women’s rights – can explode in day-to-day politics. After a controversial law enabling trans people to legally change their gender by self-identification was pushed through by Sturgeon (it was subsequently blocked by the UK government) a person who was convicted of rape before identifying as a woman was placed in a women’s prison.

Under the law, Isla Bryson would be entitled to do this and be treated as a woman; but the outcry led to Bryson being transferred to a men’s prison. Sturgeon endured excruciating interviews in which she was unable to say whether she believed Bryson was a man or a woman. It was a deeply damaging controversy, which probably triggered her departure.

For Micheál Martin, the lessons from Sturgeon are maybe about her exit

McDonald’s party is being targeted on another topical social issue – immigration and refugees. Sinn Féin deserves credit for ensuring that anti-immigrant sentiment has not taken hold in Irish politics in the way it has in many EU countries. But that is becoming harder. It’s not a coincidence that Sinn Féin is being targeted for abuse at anti-immigration rallies. It will be a substantial challenge for McDonald, inside or outside government.

Leo Varadkar must envy Sturgeon’s ability to connect with voters and to speak to them in a language they understand and in a way they can relate to. His promise to his TDs during the 2017 leadership contest to reach the voters of a new Ireland went starkly unrealised at the 2020 general election; he has one more chance at it. But he needs to be careful not to learn the wrong lesson: political communication might be about how you say it, but it is more about what you say.

Scottish voters liked Sturgeon, but they also liked her left-wing nationalism. Maybe it’s hard to tell the dancer from the dance, but Varadkar has yet to find a pitch that is compelling to voters on either style or substance. Previous flushes in Varadkarian popularity owed more to circumstances – Brexit and then Covid – than any political design. He does not have much longer to figure out a winning strategy for 2024 or 2025.

For Micheál Martin, the lessons from Sturgeon are maybe about her exit. Sturgeon realised it was time to go before her party did. Martin has been similarly a step (or several) ahead of his own TDs on most issues, one of the reasons why some of them so despise him. If he is to go before the next election – still the most likely choice for him, I think – he will have to manage that process carefully.

There was a time when you couldn’t meet a Fianna Fáil TD who didn’t want Martin gone by the next election if not before; now many of them wonder who could better lead them into it. Some of this is a recognition of the power of being a national leader – as with Sturgeon, and Varadkar, the office imbues the incumbent with authority and political weight.

For some, however, pretending Martin will lead them into the next election is a way of not having to think about the next leader, and therefore the future of the party. But as Sturgeon understood, and like Varadkar is finding out, they won’t have as much time as they think for that.