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Donald Trump will run in the 2024 election. The only question is whether he will be the Republican candidate. Conventional wisdom says that he will. His lead over Ron DeSantis is an overwhelming 40 points in the most recent New York Times poll.
But Trump is anything but conventional. His hold on the “Maga” (Make America Great Again) base is unshakeable and only strengthened by the 78 (so far) criminal charges against him. Just more evidence of the conspiracies of the deep state, they say. However, that Maga base comprises just 37 per cent of Republican voters, so they do not guarantee the nomination, never mind the presidency. Still, for now, the “softer centre” of the Republican vote also mostly sympathises with him.
This coalition gets him to just over half the Republican vote in current polls, an apparently crushing lead. Until it isn’t. So far – except for Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson, both now polling at 1 per cent – Trump’s competitors for the nomination have not attacked him directly. This has not served them well.
[ Trump requests special facility at Mar-a-Lago to review classified documents ahead of trial ]
The first wobbles in this paradoxical coalition of the competitors occurred when Jack Smith brought the indictments of Trump for concealing federal documents in Mar-a-Lago and attempting to destroy evidence of his actions. Although the jury for this case will be drawn from a Florida constituency favourable to Trump, the legal case seems extremely strong, as admitted even by members of his former administration.
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In response, his competitors did not disavow Trump. Instead, they tried to segregate him from his actions. Nikki Haley said “if the allegations are true, it’s incredibly dangerous to our national security”. Tim Scott said we should “let it play out”. Mike Pence rounded it off with: “This indictment contains serious charges, and I cannot defend what is alleged.” Of course, these signals emerged from the usual noise about how grotesque, unbelievable, bizarre and unprecedented was the behaviour of the “Biden Justice Department”. Talk about being a little bit pregnant.
This time around, the indictments go to the heart of the matter: conspiracy to defraud the electorate of the outcome of a presidential election
This time around, the indictments go to the heart of the matter: conspiracy to defraud the electorate of the outcome of a presidential election. Although this case will be heard in Washington DC – less favourable territory for Trump – the strength of the legal case (from what we know now) appears less compelling than in Florida. The challenge is to prove intent. It is insufficient that Trump was told he had lost the election. To be convicted, he had to believe that he had lost and proceeded to spread the Big Lie regardless.
Why is Trump facing federal charges in Miami?
How to get inside Trump’s head to know whether this was true? Step forward Pence. “Anyone who puts himself over the Constitution should never be president of the United States” said the contemporaneous notetaker. After the election, Trump tried on documented occasions to persuade his “too honest” vice-president to behave illegally. On Fox News, Pence now says that Trump and his crew tried “essentially to get me to overturn the election” and that the American people needed to know that, even if the charges didn’t stick.
[ Donald Trump says ‘bulls**t’ charges may force him off election campaign trail ]
It is in these dated and documented discussions by Pence that Trump’s acceptance of outcome and intent on subversion become clearer. Given the necessity to establish intent, I doubt that Jack Smith would have brought these indictments without explicit proof on this point.
Aside from this, Pence has asserted that he assured Trump he could not act to block the process, yet on January 5th Trump asserted that: “The vice-president and I are in total agreement and the vice-president has the power to act.” A clear example of intent to mislead.
There may be more to come – from Georgia for sure, but also from the as-yet-unnamed but well recognised co-conspirators. Described by Pence as “crackpot lawyers”, they are led by Rudy Giuliani, who dismissed it all as a “nothingburger”.
Competing with Trump while holding on to his base is a lost cause. To survive, his competitors must go on the attack
It was a clever move by Smith to leave them identifiable, but unnamed. The prospect of penal servitude powerfully concentrates the mind, despite Trump’s delayed payment of Giuliani’s $340,000 legal bill just before he met Smith. Giuliani, like so many of Trump’s creditors, was annoyed at being stiffed. He may yet be blamed by Trump at trial for rounding up the fake electors in the five swing states. Let’s see whether he flips.
The testament of Pence to Smith puts blood in the water that lubricates the nomination process. It empowers the Never Trumpers who hate the man or merely note his losing record in 2021 and that of his surrogates in the midterms.
[ Trump voters are shameful betrayers of the ideals and ambitions of democracy ]
Just as the indictments have reinforced the simple faith of the Maga base, they have eroded his support among independents. This is the gathering storm. Though the figures are hard to pin down, some donors have started to shift away from Trump. DeSantis – who has now admitted that Biden won the election – has had a healthy last quarter of fundraising. What money Trump did raise has largely gone to his legal defence.
Competing with Trump while holding on to his base is a lost cause. To survive, his competitors must go on the attack. Who will emerge from the crowd, and how quickly will the pack be culled?
Christie put it nicely. “The events around the White House from election night forward are a stain on our country’s history and a disgrace to the people who participated. This disgrace falls the most on Donald Trump.”
Ireland has been used to “vote x in to get/keep y out” politics since 1916. Trump will run. He can’t afford not to. The prison terms linked to his charges so far sum up to more than 50 years.
Trump will run, but not as the Republican nominee. Now that would be good news for Biden.
Garret A FitzGerald is director of the Institute for Translational Medicine and Therapeutics, University of Pennsylvania