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Having children is expensive. Having them in Ireland is incredibly expensive

Skyrocketing rents, house prices and childcare costs have all combined to mean that people can’t afford more than one or two kids

The CSO is predicting a change from a natural increase (ie, more births than deaths) to a natural decrease (ie, more deaths than births) in the population by the 2040s. Photograph: Kuzmichstudio/Agency Photos
June Shannon
Mon Jul 22 2024 - 06:04

Ireland is facing a potential scenario where for the first time the number of babies born here will be less than the number of deaths.

This nugget of information is featured in the CSO Population and Labour Force Projections report published last week, which looks at three different potential population growth scenarios for Ireland between 2023 – 2057. It is based on the 2022 Census. Under these scenarios, it is projected that by the year 2057, the population of Ireland will reach 7.005 million, 6.446 million and 5.734 million respectively. The key change in each of these scenarios is the net migration, or the difference between the number of immigrants and the number of emigrants per year.

Because in every case, the CSO is predicting a change from a natural increase (ie, more births than deaths) to a natural decrease (ie, more deaths than births) in the population by the 2040s. Its report is based on a number of assumptions regarding fertility and mortality or deaths which remain constant across the three scenarios.

The total fertility rate is set to decrease from 1.55 to 1.3 by 2037, and then to remain constant until 2057.

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In relation to mortality rates for both men and women of all ages up to 90 years old, it is assumed that these will improve at 2.5 per cent a year in the short-term to 2047. Long-term rate of improvement is assumed to be 1.5 per cent, while the short-term rate declines linearly over a 25-year period to the long-term rate.

In a nutshell, we are looking at a scenario where fewer babies are being born and the older population is set to increase significantly, so we will have more deaths than births in Ireland by the 2040s.

As well as having fewer children, women in Ireland are also having their babies later in life

Thanks to the advancement of medical science, we are all living longer, which is to be welcomed. Having an older cohort in our population is immeasurably beneficial for society. Older people’s contributions to families and communities, from grandparents providing childcare to older adults continuing to work past traditional retirement ages or volunteering in local communities, is invaluable. But for society to continue to reap this benefit, older people must be supported to live as long as possible in their own homes, with all the support they need to live well into old age.

Unfortunately, age is a risk factor for several medical conditions, including cardiovascular disease, stroke, dementia, hearing loss, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), diabetes, arthritis, osteoporosis and cancer. The frailty that can accompany old age also makes older people more susceptible to falls leading to hospitalisation. And so, without proper supports in place, an increasingly ageing population will mean a growing need for complex medical care. This will lead to more demands on our already over-burdened healthcare system which will be a major challenge.

The CSO report is based on the assumption that the total fertility rate (TFR) the expected number of children a woman will have in her lifetime) decreases from 1.55 to 1.3 by 2037, and then remains constant to 2057.

“Annual average births are projected to experience periods of decline under all three scenarios. This is a consequence of the projected lower total fertility rate (TFR) that we have been observing over the last number of years,” the report states.

This is a global trend: fertility rates have been steadily decreasing worldwide. According to a study in the medical journal The Lancet, which analysed global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100, between 1950 and 2021 global TFR more than halved from 4.84 to 2.23. “For nearly all countries and territories outside of sub-Saharan Africa, sustained low fertility will produce a contracting population with fewer young people relative to older people before the end of the 21st century. These changes in age structure are likely to present considerable economic challenges caused by a growing dependency ratio of older to working-age population and a shrinking labour force.”

As well as having fewer children, women in Ireland are also having their babies later in life. The CSO Vital Statistics annual report 2021 found that births to women aged 40 and older increased by 33.3 per cent in ten years, up from 3,827 in 2011 to 5,101 in 2021. The average age of mothers has also increased from 31.8 years in 2011 to 33.3 years in 2021.

In a nutshell, we are looking at a scenario where fewer babies are being born and older people are living longer

In Ireland, the decreasing fertility rate is reflective of greater societal changes – many of which are positive. The introduction of contraception, abortion and family planning means that women now have the choice of whether they want to become mothers or not and that is a good thing. But there is also evidence to suggest that financial pressures are coming to bear on women’s decisions on the number of children they wish to have or indeed if they wish to have children at all.

Having children is expensive; having them in Ireland is incredibly expensive. The crippling cost of childcare (which has thankfully reduced somewhat in recent years thanks to the National Childcare Scheme), a housing market that has locked out a complete generation, skyrocketing rents, and the increased cost of living in Ireland have all combined to mean that some women are deciding not to have more than one or two children because they simply can’t afford it.

In Ireland, the decreasing fertility rate is reflective of greater societal changes – many of which are positive

It is no surprise that some women are putting off having their children until later in life, when they may be more financially secure.

If we want to increase our fertility rate to meet the economic, social and care-related needs of our increasing older generation, we need to invest in women and families. We need to support women who wish to grow their families, by putting family-friendly policies in place to make it easier for them to do so.

June Shannon is a freelance writer on health