Unionist parties are already making a mess of their new multipolar era. In last month’s UK general election, the DUP lost its overwhelming dominance within the unionist bloc, while the UUP and TUV acquired seats. Although the three-way split is exaggerated by Westminster’s first-past-the-post system, perception creates its own reality: unionism has become a cacophony of parties, with no clear leader. This is not necessarily a bad thing; DUP dominance was hardly a triumph.
Choice may explain why unionism’s total share of the vote has recovered after several years of decline, while competition between parties could spur fresh thinking. Familiar defensive calls for “unionist unity”, with everyone rallying behind one party, are increasingly matched with talk of “unionist realignment” – repositioning parties to offer a clearer choice between liberals and conservatives.
Dr John Kyle, former leader of the loyalist-linked Progressive Unionist Party, is among those who foresee “a much more pragmatic, forward-looking unionism emerging”. In a front-page interview with Monday’s Belfast Telegraph, he said unionism “is in a much better place” after the election.
Alas, on the same day, all three main unionist parties made a spectacle of themselves over a GAA flag in South Armagh.
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The flag appears to have been handed to PSNI officers driving a police car through the village of Camlough during public celebrations of Armagh’s All-Ireland win. It was held aloft through an open window as the car continued through the village, to cheers from bystanders.
The three unionist parties responded with allegations of police bias, unprofessionalism and dangerous driving. Leaders of all three parties complained in person to the chief constable. Although there were differences in tone and emphasis between their statements, they will have appeared similarly outraged to any casual observer. True variety might have seen the TUV throw a tantrum, which it did; the UUP welcome the incidence as positive for police-community relations, as many in the police reportedly believe and the DUP reflect a set of views that saw the incident as unwise but not worth making an enormous fuss about.
The DUP is in a good position after the election to send carefully mixed signals. Ian Paisley, a constant nuisance to the leadership, has lost his seat. New leader Gavin Robinson, a relative moderate, increased his slender majority. The only DUP MP to significantly grow their vote was Carla Lockhart, a hardliner but also a team player. She led a party delegation to PSNI headquarters and held a press conference outside afterwards, where she also complained about the placing of GAA flags on a police station in her north Armagh constituency. Robinson could have left her to it. Instead, he issued an equally condemnatory statement of his own.
A classic failure of unionism is fear of being called a Lundy, an insult derived from the siege of Derry, meaning a traitor or appeaser. It is typical for this old problem to involve a laughably petty issue. The entire unionist political system immediately Lundied itself over the GAA flag, making a mockery of hopes for a new era. However, the problem goes beyond disappointment. A cacophony of voices, not including the largest party in Northern Ireland even if still the largest political group, no longer commands automatic attention. There is less sense that its settled view on every question is required. If unionism is not generating interesting internal debates and only speaks with one voice to agree on nonsense, that is how it will be seen. It can disappear down a rabbit hole of tribal trivialities and nobody else will particularly care.
That could include many of its own voters. In Northern Ireland’s segregated society, most unionists will be oblivious to the GAA most of the time. Even among those actively hostile to the GAA, the drama and priority given to the flag row by every unionist party must have seemed absurd. Politics is not currently short of serious subjects.
The three-way split in the unionist vote is in reality a five-way split, with some people switching to Alliance and others staying at home. Turnout in the general election was down 4 percentage points. Although this affected all sides, within nationalism it can be blamed on the stultifying effect of one dominant party, Sinn Féin. Unionism’s stultification with multiple parties is arguably worse. The lack of inspiring choice will see votes leak away, accelerating a trend that is already discernible: disassociation of support for the union with support for unionist parties.
Opinion polls indicate the union is significantly more popular than what is termed “political unionism”. Unionists tend to take comfort from this, believing it means the union is secure. But there is little discussion of how a post-unionist union might work, nor do unionist parties seem that interested in a debate. They are still too busy having stupid arguments over flags.