Every general election has an issue that might not fully determine the outcome but defines the political contest.
In 2016, it was water charges. The Government’s elaborate scheme to have a meter outside every home and charge householders for water use – a standard charge in just about every European Union country – met widespread resistance, initially from the left but then from some supporters of the centrist parties.
After five years of the troika and hair-shirt economic policies, politically, the introduction of water charges challenged Fine Gael’s upbeat election slogan of “Let’s Keep the Recovery Going”. For those opposing the Coalition, the message could not have been simpler: No recovery is being felt on the ground, and the Government wants to introduce yet another new tax.
The water charges protests were a success for parties of the left, especially Sinn Féin. It had a good general election in 2016 on the back of it.
Richard Ford on Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump: ‘So, you’re telling me there’s a chance?’
Cycling in Ireland: Five of Ireland’s best scenic routes, from easy to challenging
Mammy and Daddy Collison are moving up in the world, to Ailesbury Road to be exact
Rachel Connolly: A man in the street shouted: ‘Cheer up love, it might never happen.’ I swore back
So central had water charges become to political discourse that the prime focus of the “confidence and supply” negotiations between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil in 2016 was finding a solution to the issue. The initial document produced by Fianna Fáil in advance of the negotiations had three pages on water charges and little more than a single page on the plethora of other issues that might just affect the future of the country, including the economy, housing, health, the environment, transport and climate change.
Both parties wanted to keep the notion of water charges alive. A special Oireachtas committee was set up and reported in 2017. It recommended that only households using 1.7 times the average would be charged. It was a ruse, an elaborate scheme to make water charges go away as a political issue. No charging regime was introduced. The water meters on every pavement have become quaint artefacts of a redundant past, like phone boxes and electronic voting machines.
In 2020, the overriding issue was housing. That single word covered a lot of ground, from homelessness, to social housing, to sky-high rents, unaffordable starter homes and a large supply shortage.
The 2020 general election was one of those contests that proved second-tier elections can be poor predictors of general election outcomes.
There was always a disconnect between Sinn Féin’s policy on immigration and the sentiments held by part of its base, especially in Dublin working-class areas
Sinn Féin turned around its dismal 2019 showing by focusing on a small number of core issues, where it held an advantage over its main rivals. Sinn Féin had several things going for it in housing. It had a competent and articulate spokesman in Eoin Ó Broin. For its part, given the purgatorial length of time it takes to “solve” housing, the Government had little to show for all its efforts and investment.
The attack line was one of failure of delivery and of competence. It fed into a wider narrative of a generation locked out of property ownership. That election marked the first time that voters from outside the Sinn Féin pool seriously considered it as an alternative option for government.
So what will be the defining issue of the next general election? Until last autumn, it was housing.
The monthly Snapshot poll by Ipsos for The Irish Times has been a useful tool for measuring public sentiment on an ongoing basis.
For most of last year, housing was way out on its own, regularly hitting the mid-20 percentile mark in term of recognition when all other issues struggled to get into single digits. And then in November and December – in the wake of protests about accommodation centre and the Dublin riots – immigration shot up in terms of public recognition. In the snapshots since then, in all but two months, immigration has been above housing as the issue most noticed.
There was always a disconnect between Sinn Féin’s policy on immigration and the sentiments held by part of its base, especially in Dublin working-class areas. It was a relatively regular occurrence to hear anti-immigrant sentiments on the party’s canvass – in fairness, the party never played that card. But, it has been a factor in the dramatic fall in Sinn Féin support in recent months, as former supporters have switched allegiance to Independents and right-wing actors, amid a general hardening of views on immigration among the electorate.
Over the past fortnight we have seen the first part of Sinn Féin’s strategy to recover its support, with a new policy on immigration that partly acquiesces to protesters who want to veto accommodation centres in their locality.
This week, the party finally unveiled part of its long-awaited housing policy with a promise of 50,000 social and affordable homes, and homes for €300,000. The novel element is that the State will own the actual land (not the dwelling) and will retain ownership if the “homeowner” sells on.
Fine Gael responded within minutes, with Minister of State for Housing Alan Dillon claiming that the policy would deny people the opportunity of ever owning their own home.
It’s hard to guess right now and of these two issues will define the next election. There is no upside for the party if immigration is the issue. Even if it does succeed in pivoting the overarching political discussion to housing, the terms of engagement will not be the same as in 2020.
That last election was about the outgoing government’s failure of delivery on housing. That’s not to say that Darragh O’Brien has made a success of housing, but it’s no longer a tale of abject failure. There has been a marked improvement in some areas (excepting homelessness). If housing is the issue now, it could be less about competence, more of a clash of ideologies over what constitutes home ownership.
Whichever issue is the defining one, it will be difficult for Sinn Féin to replicate its success of four years ago.
- Listen to our Inside Politics Podcast for the latest analysis and chat
- Sign up for push alerts and have the best news, analysis and comment delivered directly to your phone
- Find The Irish Times on WhatsApp and stay up to date