Irish voters have been volatile over the last number of elections, to say the least.
The fortunes of the three main parties – Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin – have been on rollercoasters since the economic crash and amid the ongoing housing crisis. Party allegiances are a thing of the past for many voters and unexpected events during campaigns can affect election outcomes.
Predicting what will happen in the looming general election – as soon as November if the speculation is correct – is therefore extremely difficult.
But if there are two potential bellwether constituencies that could offer a sense of the shape of the next Dáil, they may well be Dublin Bay North and Carlow-Kilkenny. Both constituencies have opened up massively with five sitting TDs between them either retiring or heading off to Europe.
Broad national trends in party support may be better reflected as voters consider fresh faces on ballot papers in these constituencies than would be the case if the incumbents with existing personal votes were running.
Both are also five-seaters that offer opportunities for smaller parties and possibly Independents. But more important than that, the big three parties need to be taking at least two seats in these kinds of constituencies if they want to be in power.
So what is the state of play?
Dublin Bay North is almost entirely urban with both affluent and disadvantaged areas where housing is a top concern. Immigration surfaced as an issue there in recent weeks with unrest, at times violent, over Government plans to locate a refugee centre in Coolock.
The issue should not be overstated – no fringe right-wing candidates were returned here in the local election in June. Nor should it be ignored. Mainstream political parties have been the target of vitriol from those stirring up anti-immigration sentiment, with the potential for it to chip away at their support.
Coolock-based Sinn Féin TD Denise Mitchell – who is expected to run – should hold her seat regardless. She stormed to victory as the party’s lone 2020 candidate in the constituency with 21,344 first-preference votes – the highest number of any candidate in the country.
It will be a big disappointment for Sinn Féin if a running mate – perhaps Donaghmede councillor Micheál MacDonncha – is not returned this time too. Three incumbents from other parties are not running – Fine Gael’s Richard Bruton and Fianna Fáil’s Seán Haughey are retiring and Labour’s Aodhán Ó Ríordáin was elected to the European Parliament in June.
The other sitting TD, Cian O’Callaghan of the Social Democrats, is well placed to keep his seat.
Fine Gael has selected councillors Naoise Ó Muirí and Aoibhinn Tormey as candidates – a well-balanced ticket geographically.
Options for a likely two-candidate Fianna Fáil ticket include city councillors Deirdre Heney, Tom Brabazon and Daryl Barron, and Cathal Haughey, a Fingal councillor, nephew of Seán, and grandson of the late taoiseach Charles Haughey.
Assuming O’Callaghan and the three main parties hold what they have, it will be a scrap for the fifth seat.
There will be a yet-to-be-named Labour candidate seeking to hold Ó Ríordáin’s seat and vying with Green Party councillor David Healy as well as Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin, who will hope to be in the hunt for a second seat.
Independent councillor Barry Heneghan – backed by former local Independent TD Finian McGrath – should not be written off. An Independent taking a seat here could be part of a trend for non-party candidates getting elected across the country.
In Carlow-Kilkenny housing is obviously an important issue in places such as Kilkenny city and commuter belt towns in Carlow, as is support for farmers in rural areas. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have traditionally been strong here, battling for dominance over the years.
Could transfers between the current Coalition partners help both on this occasion? Sinn Féin has a dilemma in replacing Kilkenny-based TD and reliable vote-getter Kathleen Funchion, elected as a MEP this summer.
The party has not selected candidates as yet.
Sinn Féin has three councillors across the two counties – Andy Gladney and Jim Deane in Carlow and Stephanie Doheny in Kilkenny – none of whom have Funchion’s name-recognition. Two seats might be a stretch at a time when the party’s support has slipped in national polls.
Fianna Fáil has two sitting TDs – Carlow-based Jennifer Murnane O’Connor – already selected to run – and Kilkenny-based John McGuinness, who is expected to be selected in Kilkenny. There may be one other candidate.
Fine Gael TD John Paul Phelan is not contesting the election. He has been replaced on the party ticket by two Kilkenny councillors, David Fitzgerald and Micheal Doyle, and Carlow-based Catherine Callaghan. The party will want to win at least one seat in each county, which it does not currently have.
The constituency will be a good testing ground for how well the Greens do outside Dublin.
Junior minister Malcolm Noonan – a long-time elected representative in Kilkenny – has a decent chance of retaining his seat. Losing out could indicate a bad day for the party in the regions.
There may be opportunities for smaller parties or Independents to take seats in places like Dublin Bay North and Carlow-Kilkenny. But it is the prospects for Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin candidates in places like these that should be closely followed as the election approaches.
It may just offer a hint of who will be in the driving seat to form the next government.
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