Is there an adult in the room? This is a question that is now being frequently asked among objective observers of the general election campaign which will end with voting in nine days’ time. Some fundamental realities seem to escape the minds of the participants.
The first is that we will be governed by a coalition which will be formed sometime in December or January. Neither Fine Gael nor Fianna Fáil can reasonably aspire to govern without the other. Neither party will enter a coalition with Sinn Féin. The only way that Sinn Féin could hope to enter government is if Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil for some reason refuse to do business with one another.
The second reality is that the majority of voters wants a coalition between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, and would prefer that such a coalition, if needs be, secures the support of ideologically compatible Independents rather than a smaller party of the left – especially the Greens.
The two larger parties have signalled a wish to govern without the Greens for a number of reasons. They sense that a renewed coalition with the Greens would be very unpopular in rural Ireland. They also know that asking voters to re-elect the present three-party Coalition would play into the hands of Sinn Féin, which is campaigning on the basis of appetite for change. That is why they cynically signalled an unlikely interest in Labour at the outset of the campaign, as I wrote here last week.
What the two bigger parties – especially Fine Gael – most fear now is that voters will express their desire for a change by voting in large numbers for Independents. That is why the Taoiseach has turned his guns on Independents: he fears they will frustrate his personal ambition to establish clear blue water between FG and FF in terms of the numbers of TDs elected.
The FG strategy clearly was to convince voters that Simon Harris had momentum behind him based on a claimed new energy. He clearly hopes to win so many more seats than FF that he could credibly refuse point blank to agree a rotating taoiseach deal with Micheál Martin. I consider that strategy is doomed for three reasons.
Firstly, the much-vaunted new energy seems illusory; political energy is different from frenetic activity lacking substance or coherence. The lacklustre and gaffe-filled start to the Fine Gael campaign has robbed any sense of excitement from the poster promise of new energy; it isn’t convincing. Most polls show roughly even support for FG and FF.
Secondly, the centre-right consensus – composed of middle Ireland voters – knows in its heart that Harris and Martin are bound to sit down together in the coming six weeks to hammer out a deal for government. Expecting Martin to enter that government on a basis of inequality is simply unreasonable. Why would he do so?
Thirdly, how could Harris persuade the public that it was essential for him to be the full-term Taoiseach? If that becomes a redline issue, public opinion will abandon him on the basis that the rotating taoiseach approach worked perfectly well in the outgoing Government. Harris would look ridiculous if he walked out of negotiations for that reason – or threatened to do so. Martin holds the better hand in that scenario. That strategy betokens a worrying degree of political immaturity and naivety.
If the next government is formed on the basis of like-minded Independents’ support, they too would have little reason to back Harris on that issue.
The unashamed auction politicking coming from all parties rings hollow. Voters will have simply had enough of being bought or bribed with their own money. It all lacks credibility. Why didn’t the bigger parties deliver half of the newly devised promises when they had the chance to do so, they reasonably ask.
The UK example of economic realities demolishing election promises is too recent to be forgotten. Events across the Atlantic raise potential storm clouds on the economic horizon. We need coherent, realistic government – not extravagant promises designed for illusory short-term electoral advantage. Ironically, in many constituencies, voters may see centre-of-the-road, Independent candidates as the only candidates not making wildly extravagant and expensive political commitments that all the parties are using to buy votes.
Far from being unpredictable or unreliable, many Independent candidates may appear trustworthy, reasonable and interested in ensuring five years of stable government in what will be challenging times, rather than ideological or auction politics. They mostly like full-term parliaments. Of course, not all Independent candidates will fill that role. But voters can judge wisely among them. Middle Ireland needs a new government.
If they want change, voters would be wise to reject empty jockeying for party advantage and elect a Dáil where their values and interests really coincide with those who form or will support the next government.