The English Patient is a much feted film adaptation by Anthony Minghella of Michael Ondaatje’s novel of the same name. Its title, however, has a worrying contemporary resonance. All is not well with England. Its media is increasingly crowded with pessimism and self-doubt.
This week the London Times published polling data suggesting that England’s younger generation, Gen Z, was becoming radically disillusioned. The swashbuckling optimism that accompanied the Brexit campaign seems to be sinking like a tired soufflé.
Polls consistently suggest that a significant majority of Britons now believe Brexit was a big mistake. None of its mooted advantages seem to have accrued; all its downsides are coming into ever-sharper focus. And yet polls also reveal that the spirit of disillusionment is not helping politicians who were Remainers and are in a position to say “I told you so”.
The pro-Brexit and anti-EU Reform UK party of Nigel Farage is now receiving higher poll support levels (25 per cent) than the Labour Party (24 per cent) and the Tories (21 per cent). The pro-EU Liberal Democrats are on 14 per cent and the Greens attract 9 per cent support. Even for Lib Dems, advocacy of an early reversal of Brexit is impossible.
Bearing in mind that Labour last year achieved a significant majority with a lower percentage of the popular vote (33.7 per cent) than that won by Jeremy Corbyn in his 2017 general election (40 per cent) – and close to the 32 per cent share managed by Corbyn when Boris Johnson trounced him in 2019 – the UK’s first-past-the post electoral system seems uniquely vulnerable to insurgency such as Farage’s.
Figures close to Trump, including Elon Musk, openly speak of reversing the 2024 UK election outcome
Labour is already losing popularity as it struggles with the shockingly bad state of the public finances it inherited from the Sunak administration. There simply seem to be no available resources for some of Labour’s more ambitious investment programmes. And the no-tax-rise pledges made by Starmer to achieve his election appear to be losing credibility in the face of sluggish economic growth and the social insurance hikes already implemented.
Underlying the general political ennui is the deeper issue of economic non-participation by the largely white, post-industrial working class. It is impossible, apparently, for politicians to speak frankly about that phenomenon.
When significant portions of the labour force are tempted by a combination of low wages, poor employment opportunities and high welfare provision to opt out of job-seeking, often citing long-term disability including depression, it is very hard for a nominally left-leaning government to articulate the realities, let alone to formulate a coherent, credible response.
That situation is further complicated by immigration. Migrants seeking any employment immediately become suspect in the eyes of the disaffected unemployed as “taking our jobs”, “taking our housing”, and lengthening queues for education and health services. Those unspoken suspicions probably underlie the rise of Reform in public opinion polls.
The ongoing flirtation between Trumpism and anti-Labour politicians in Reform compounds the malaise. Figures close to Trump, including Elon Musk, openly speak of reversing the 2024 UK election outcome by removing Starmer from office.
Starmer is walking a very tricky tightrope. If Trump signals to UK voters that he wants a Starmer-free UK, the predatory Tory right-wing print media will immediately blame Starmer for the deterioration in the US-UK “special relationship”. The Guardian and the Daily Mirror will be reduced to defensive explanations – always a challenge to avoid losing while explaining. On the other hand, if Starmer appears to be appeasing Trump’s tariff-war diplomacy, any chance he has of bringing the EU into a fruitful new trading relationship will suffer badly.
This dilemma is one that the ever resourceful, and often slippery, Svengali of British politics, Peter Mandelson, will have to handle in his new post in Washington as UK ambassador. Mandelson, as a gay man, will be at a considerable disadvantage in the reactionary court of King Donald.
Where is the UK going to find extra resources for increased defence expenditure demanded of Nato allies by Trump? Starmer cannot be seen to let down Volodymyr Zelenskiy in his moment of need. How can a hard-pressed Labour chancellor move more resources from social infrastructure into military expenditure?
It is not a case yet of Britain becoming ungovernable. But it is increasingly difficult for Starmer to govern credibly while surrounded politically by such a bewildering array of unpredictable moving parts and pressure points.
[ It normally takes a government a bit longer than this to look so out of touchOpens in new window ]
The new Irish Coalition has no cause for complacency or smugness by comparison. It has had a bad start for the past few weeks. It could look tired very quickly if radical steps needed on the housing and infrastructural fronts are not taken. The governing parties don’t have the luxury (or the glitzy PR effects) of Trump’s executive orders, but there is a big appetite for visible change and credible delivery in those two areas.
Nor is it a case of England’s adversity somehow being Ireland’s opportunity; we are too closely connected for that kind of thinking.
