Suddenly the crisis over Iran's nuclear programme and what should be done about it has come to the top of the international political agenda. Last week's announcement by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that Iran has successfully enriched uranium represented a qualitative shift in its intensity.
This has been deepened by reports from Washington that the United States is contemplating an air attack on Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including the use of nuclear tipped bombs.
Yesterday President Bush refused for the second time this week to rule out the use of nuclear weapons against Iran, while saying his first priority is a diplomatic solution. Any such attack would be a disastrous step towards a regional war in the Middle East. Already the price of oil is taking the strain.
It is now time to take the military threat seriously and to consider alternative, non-violent, ways of defusing the conflict. Tension is being escalated relentlessly by a mutual obduracy in Washington and Tehran, which puts radicals in the ascendant. Opportunities to compromise have therefore been systematically missed over the last few months. This has put the European initiative led by France, Britain and Germany to find a diplomatic solution on the defensive.
Iran's refusal to confirm its peaceful intent with the International Atomic Energy Agency gave that body no option but to report the matter to the United Nations Security Council. Another IAEA report by April 28th is expected to confirm Iran's failure to comply with the terms of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. An overnight meeting of Security Council powers in Moscow registered no progress on the issue.
The Bush administration has decided that Iran must not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons. It is convinced they would be used to dominate and threaten the oil-rich region in coming years, and that this cannot be tolerated. But it does not follow that the only way to stop that happening is by military force. The options are being artificially narrowed by those with an interest in attacking Iran. A different approach needs to be articulated and pressed by those opposed to that option. This includes the European Union, Russia and China, whose president meets Mr Bush in Washington tomorrow.
Several senior Republican figures there have advocated extended talks with Iran over recent days. This could include offering a range of economic benefits, security guarantees and political dialogue in return for Iranian compliance, if necessary with a limited and strictly monitored enrichment facility. Carrots have to be offered as well as sticks, along with a realisation that Iran believes it faces threats and requires guarantees if they are to be reduced. There is still room to explore whether its divided leadership can be convinced to compromise, rather than to stoke the radicals' case by reciprocating their militancy. Unless the case for compromise is made loudly now it will go by default.