The last opinion poll of the 2007 general election campaign shows a dramatic resurgence in support for Fianna Fáil and the real prospect that the Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern, could lead the next coalition government, possibly even with the Progressive Democrats.
The alternative alliance of Fine Gael and the Labour Party has lost the momentum, according to the findings of today's Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll which was conducted last Friday and Saturday.
In a period of 10 days in which Mr Ahern made a further statement about the personal finances surrounding the purchase of his house, became the first taoiseach in the history of the State to address the Houses of Parliament in Westminster and participated in the television debate with the Fine Gael leader, Enda Kenny, support for Fianna Fáil increased by 5 points to 41 per cent. The Progressive Democrats have remained static at 2 per cent. The Fine Gael-led alternative has lost the initiative with the party down one point to 27 per cent and Labour down 3 points to 10 per cent in the poll.
With three days left in the campaign, the Fianna Fáil/PD government has 43 per cent support, the same as the combined coalition of Fine Gael, Labour and the Green Party. It is critical that the outgoing Government's satisfaction rating has climbed by 5 points to 52 per cent, the highest it has reached at different times during the last five years. Mr Ahern's own personal rating has increased by 4 points to 58 per cent; Mr Kenny's by one point to 48 per cent.
Party strategists will wonder what led to such a turnaround in fortunes since the last Irish Times poll and how the campaign should be conducted in its final days. Today's findings would suggest that the importance of the issue of the Taoiseach's finances has diminished. Some 36 per cent believe that it is a serious issue in the campaign now compared to 50 per cent 10 days ago. The television debate between Mr Ahern and Mr Kenny was watched by more than half of the electorate and the Taoiseach was perceived to be the clear winner.
Perhaps the key to Fianna Fáil's revival lies in the perception that Mr Ahern would be better than Mr Kenny in managing the economy, representing the country, keeping taxes low, improving infrastructure and roads and dealing with other issues. There are only two important policy areas where Mr Kenny is seen to be better than Mr Ahern: improving the health service (42 per cent to 31 per cent) and providing affordable and good quality childcare (38 per cent to 34 per cent). Mr Ahern is marginally ahead even on the contentious issue of providing public services.
The mood swings of voters have been dramatic during the campaign. Who knows if and how they will consolidate. Certainly, there could be a hung Dáil. And maybe, just maybe, Michael McDowell's campaign slogan is hitting home as the election goes down to the wire? There is still more to play for.