A Russian role in settlement of conflict in the Balkans would reduce much internal instability

Russia's former prime minister, Mr Viktor Chernomyrdin, took a break last weekend from his role as President Yeltsin's special…

Russia's former prime minister, Mr Viktor Chernomyrdin, took a break last weekend from his role as President Yeltsin's special envoy on Yugoslavia, and addressed the annual conference of his political party, Our Home is Russia. He warned that if politicians with democratic credentials did not unite, Russia could be forced into its third political system inside a decade.

First there was communism with a slightly democratic face under Mikhail Gorbachev: after that there has been capitalism with a slightly democratic face under Boris Yeltsin.

Although he did not say it straight out, Mr Chernomyrdin hinted that after the parliamentary elections later this year, Russia could be on the road to a new system in which even the slightest concession to democracy would be unimaginable.

The war in Yugoslavia has played its part in all of this. Anti-Western feelings are running high. Russian nationalism is on the rise. Support for the communist-nationalist alliance which dominates the State Duma is growing.

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Yesterday, for example, the US embassy in Moscow issued a warning notice to its citizens, and there are thousands of them in Moscow, on how to behave in the current atmosphere. Some of its content was alarming if not alarmist.

"Stay alert to your surroundings. At your residence, keep your doors locked at all times," Americans have been warned. They have also been told to avoid wearing clothing such as "team logo jackets or T-shirts that identify you as American". Should this instruction be obeyed, it would quickly distinguish Americans from young Russians, whose main form of dress consists of team logo jackets and T-shirts deliberately intended to make them look American.

There were dire warnings about not getting caught up in demonstrations and to get down and stay away from the window in the event of an explosion. The instruction many Americans may find most difficult to obey, however, is one that demands they should avoid "speaking loudly in English". This correspondent has encountered some younger American males in Moscow for whom speaking loudly in Hittite would be a far easier task than speaking softly in English.

All the same, Americans do have something to worry about. Their embassy in Moscow was subjected to a machine-gun attack a few weeks ago, and at the weekend their consulate in Yekaterinburg was bombed.

A ground offensive or, more dramatically, the boarding by NATO of a Russian oil tanker in the Adriatic would heighten tension even further. Far more importantly than making life uncomfortable for expatriates, such actions could swing more Russian voters into the ultra-nationalist camp.

In all of this Mr Yeltsin, Mr Chernomyrdin and Russia's "democrats" are in something of a bind. They strongly oppose NATO's actions, not so much for love of Serbia but for the reason that many Westerners are against the war in Yugoslavia.

NATO's core policy statement that "none of its weapons will ever be used except in self-defence" has been abandoned in an attempt to find a new role for the alliance.

The Russian political establishment sees this as a threat, not only to the role of the United Nations and its own standing on the Security Council, but also as a possible future military menace to Russia itself. NATO has advanced eastwards towards Russia's borders. NATO has also, in Russia's view, lent its support to a separatist ethnic movement.

It is not difficult to imagine a future conflict within Russia of a similar nature to that in Kosovo. In fact the Chechen war, in which up to 30,000 civilians were killed as NATO looked on, bore no small resemblance to the current conflict.

The Russian Federation is not only home to a large Slavic population which feels an atavistic support for the Orthodox Serbs, it also houses 20 million Muslims whose natural loyalties lie elsewhere.

A recent visit to Tatarstan, where relations between Muslims and Orthodox have been exemplary, has revealed new strains. In the northern Caucasus where relations have never been good, the situation is far more volatile. The claims by some Tatars that volunteer companies have been raised to fight alongside Kosovo Albanians may have their basis in brag gadocio. Similar claims by Chechens should be taken much more seriously.

In the meantime each military move by NATO appears to shift more Russians away from the West and into an atavistic pan-Slavism. Each pan-Slavic move raises pan-Islamist and, paradoxically, pro-NATO feelings in the Muslim regions.

Russian politicians who wish to stay out of the conflict and to get through this year's parliamentary elections and next year's presidential poll without handing control of Russia to extreme elements have a limited range of options. The best is a peace settlement in which Russia plays a major part.