A vote for Labour is a vote to return Fianna Fáil to government. That is the inevitable significance of Monday's Irish Timesopinion poll and Pat Rabbitte's evasiveness on the issue of a Fianna Fáil/Labour government, writes Vincent Browne
A Fianna Fáil/Labour government might be quite a good government, certainly far better than a Fianna Fáil/Progressive Democrats one, but those would-be Labour voters who want Fianna Fáil out of office should be aware that voting Labour will, almost certainly, result in putting Fianna Fáil back in power.
Asked on Monday morning if he would repeat an assurance he gave on RTÉ television's Questions and Answerslast January - "I will not put Fianna Fáil back in government" - Pat Rabbitte said "yes". But a minute or two later, when asked if, after the election, the country is faced with the options of a Fianna Fáil/Sinn Féin government or a Fianna Fáil/Labour government, he would opt to "spare" the country from Sinn Féin being in power by going into government with Fianna Fáil, we had familiar evasions. Have no doubt about it, in spite of all Pat Rabbitte's bold assertions about having no intention of putting Fianna Fáil back in office and wanting to offer the people an entirely different government, he and Labour will do the business with Fianna Fáil if that is what the election outcome ordains.
Labour going into government with Fianna Fáil is one thing, Pat Rabbitte trying to pretend there is no prospect of that happening when, manifestly, there is every prospect, is another.
Then there's the matter of Brian Cowen's coyness about Fianna Fáil's recent private meeting with Tony O'Reilly. The meeting with O'Reilly is a major issue. Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats facilitated him some years ago over Eircom, a takeover that did terrible damage to the interests of this country. And it was, or should have been, known that this would be the outcome, and yet, for reasons unexplained, the deal went ahead. It made further millions for O'Reilly and damaged the spread of broadband to the detriment of the economy and the country.
Briefly what happened was this. O'Reilly, through yet another of his corporate manifestations, Valentia, bid for the takeover of Eircom - this was after the disastrous privatisation. O'Reilly needed the backing of Esop, the entity that controlled the 14.9 per cent owned by the workers, but there was a complication. The takeover would expose Esop to capital gains tax, and they would not agree until this was resolved. A commitment was made that the tax laws would be changed to protect Esop against a tax liability. Valentia got Eircom, even though it was obvious from the manner in which O'Reilly and his pals were proposing to finance the deal that it would result in a creaming-off of profits from Eircom to pay off interest, diverting money from infrastructural investment.
Wasn't that a handsome gesture by the Government for the controller of Independent Newspapers, which recommended Fianna Fáil to voters in 1997?
So what is cooking now? The last time Labour were in government (1992-1997), even during the time they were assisted by Pat Rabbitte and Proinsias de Rossa (1994-1997), some worthwhile reforms were enacted, including the Freedom of Information Act and legislation requiring disclosures of financial donations to parties and candidates. But the State was kept safe for the elite during that time. All the budgets of that era, including the budgets of Ruairí Quinn, favoured the rich, and that is the way it will go again, you can be sure.
And, incidentally, there will be no problem with Bertie Ahern. Bertie will not have to answer any of the obvious questions that lie unanswered about his finances. We will be told the tribunal will sort out all that.
If would-be Labour voters want to avoid putting Fianna Fáil, or Fianna Fáil-Tony O'Reilly, back in power, they should not vote Labour. Nor should they vote for the Greens or Sinn Féin. Their only options are to vote for Joe Higgins's Socialist Party candidates, or the People Before Profit candidates, or anti-Fianna Fáil Independents or, yes, Fine Gael.
For, if Fianna Fáil do well enough, they may not need Labour. There is a real chance they could do a deal just with the Greens or Sinn Féin. The Greens would frighten Fianna Fáil because of the "flaky" factor - you wouldn't know when and where they would find a principle and up and out.
Sinn Féin would be more reliable, but there would be the slight embarrassment of going back on repeated commitments not to entertain them in government this time. But that need be only a temporary little discomfort, for it will be "discovered" there is no incompatibility on economic policy between Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin and no bother about the EU, because Sinn Féin does not stand for anything either.
We have managed to take policy out of politics here. Now it is all about managerialism, who can best manage the economy or the health service or whatever. Nothing about policy.