The world may be facing three civil wars in the Middle East, writes Seán Loveof Amnesty International
In the run-up to Christmas, our thoughts turn to cities with a huge emotional and historical resonance - Nazareth, Bethlehem and Jerusalem. At the same time, those cities remain at the heart of one of the most entrenched and bitter conflicts in the region. However, the risk of violence is not confined to Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories but stretches right across the Middle East.
While the attention of the international community and the media remains firmly focused on the "war on terror" and the current shift in power within the United States, it seems the Middle East may be sleep-walking towards a series of civil wars.
The levels of violence in Iraq escalate daily. The barely contained crisis in Lebanon seems primed to explode at any moment. In Israel and the occupied territories, a deep sense of despair promises only a renewed cycle of violence among young people, fuelled by a failure of political leadership and discredited political institutions.
Jordan, long-considered one of the more stable and progressive states in the Middle East, warns of the imminent prospect of three potential civil wars in the region. As he prepared to meet President George Bush in Amman last week, Jordan's King Abdullah said: "We could possibly imagine going into 2007 and having three civil wars on our hands. And therefore, it is time that we really take a strong step forward as part of the international community and make sure we avert the Middle East from a tremendous crisis that I fear, and I see could possibly happen in 2007."
These fears are echoed by the findings of Amnesty International's recent research missions to Israel, the occupied territories and Lebanon. We are seeing a downward spiral of human rights abuses and entrenched impunity, sowing the seeds of a disaster with catastrophic consequences for ordinary people.
Despair about the foreseeable future is fuelling violence and the radicalisation of a predominantly young Palestinian population who see no prospects of a normal life.
The prognosis is one of widespread violence, the collapse of already-failing Palestinian institutions and a worsening of the human rights and humanitarian crisis.
The economic situation in the occupied territories is dire, trapping an entire population in deep poverty. The cumulative impact of measures by the Israeli authorities, severe restrictions on freedom of movement, the expansion of settlements and the building of the wall inside the occupied territories has strangled the local economy.
What is effectively an international sanctions regime against the Hamas-led Palestinian government is also now in place. The Gaza Strip, in particular, is in the grip of a deep humanitarian crisis as a result of the blockade imposed by the Israeli authorities.
In Iraq, nearly three years after US and allied forces invaded and toppled the government of Saddam Hussein, the human rights situation remains dire. Kidnappings, torture and killings - by paramilitary groups linked to government ministries, and opposition groups - are a daily occurrence.
The increased factionalisation of political life has led to a virtual state of undeclared civil war and the prospect of the break-up of the country.
The newly formed Iraqi government has thus far failed to end the bloodshed, in spite of a security operation involving thousands of Iraqi troops and the recent extra deployment of nearly 4,000 US troops in Baghdad.
Reports of torture, ill-treatment and absence of judicial process at the hands of Iraqi authorities continue. Adequate safeguards against torture and ill-treatment are not in place in multinational force detention facilities, and thousands continue to be held without charge or trial. The rule of law seems as far away as ever.
The fragile peace in Lebanon is increasingly under threat as pro- and anti-Syrian factions, Hizbullah and the central government jostle for power and influence. As thousands of people have recently taken to the streets of Beirut, Amnesty International is calling on political leaders to ensure that the demonstrations do not escalate into political violence leading to more human rights abuses.
However, as the public demonstrations gather momentum in Beirut, Lebanon teeters on the brink of a new upsurge of fighting. Lebanon has a history of political conflict along sectarian lines that have led to massive human rights violations in the recent past and which remain largely unaddressed.
Although the political demonstrations in Beirut are a remarkable example of people exerting their right to freedom of expression, they cannot detract from the need to address impunity. The lack of effective mechanisms to deal with past human rights violations has bred a high level of mistrust in Lebanon, part of which is being voiced now in the demonstrations.
Amnesty International firmly believes that what is urgently required in the Middle East is a solution grounded solidly in human rights.
This will require international co-operation and strong political will. It is the only way to deliver peace, justice and security for all the people in that region.
Seán Love is executive director of Amnesty International, Irish section