Ahern at his most calculating with some throwaway remarks

The last time a Taoiseach made a major policy announcement outside the State was in 1948 when John A

The last time a Taoiseach made a major policy announcement outside the State was in 1948 when John A. Costello declared the Republic in Ottawa. The story put about at the time, though always denied by Costello, was that he made the announcement in a fit of pique induced by the bad manners of his host, Earl Alexander.

It was all a long time ago, but out of it came the Republic, or as Brendan Behan used say, three quarters of a Nation Once Again.

Now we have Bertie Ahern making a major pronouncement on immigration in another of the former colonies. It was all very surprising and stirred up the usual reaction - some of it predictably knee-jerk, but certainly not all of it.

There is no evidence Bertie Ahern was having a bad hair day or that his host was giving him a bad time when he spoke in such startling terms of the Australian "transit camps" for refugees and suggested we might follow suit.

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But there was no question either that he had, in the words of Richard Nixon's aide, "misspoke" himself. He persisted with his point, even under pressure.

Those who know Bertie Ahern know he does little without calculation and that he is at his most serious or devious when he appears to make throwaway remarks. His comments on Spencer Dock came at a crucial stage in the Bord Pleanala inquiry, just as the wind was blowing in a particular way, and may yet prove expensive. Whatever they were, they were not spontaneous.

Nor were the Australian remarks. So what was he at? Basically, Drapier thinks it is all about the next election. Fianna Fail, more than any other party, believes in polling. Not just the nationwide poll, but more to the point, local constituency polling and those focus groups so beloved of Peter Mandelson and Tony Blair.

What the polls are telling Fianna Fail and the other parties is that with little perceived policy difference between the parties at national level, local issues are coming to the fore and local issues will ultimately decide the destination of a number of seats.

"It is the micro picture, not the macro picture, that counts," one pollster told Drapier. Tip O'Neill put it better when he said that ultimately "all politics is local".

And so it is with immigration. The polls show that it is a big issue in a number of Dublin constituencies where Fianna Fail has a chance of winning an extra seat. Two or three extra seats in Dublin would mean a good start in an election which most believe will be tight, won or lost in no more than a dozen marginals.

As for the PDs, well, Fianna Fail will be content to leave the high ground to them. The PDs are no longer the enemies they once were. The arrival of Michael McDowell cemented that alliance, and there will be no question of looking to anybody but Fianna Fail come the next election.

It is a balancing act with Bertie Ahern. With tough talk already on the record from Ivor Callely, Noel Ahern and John O'Donoghue, the next phase will see some liberal noises from a number of backbenchers - not too liberal but enough to show the caring progressive face of the party and not enough to damage the impression of toughness.

One way or another, Drapier thinks Bertie Ahern may have miscalculated. "Detention camp" has a nasty ring to it. With the exception of the war years, we have managed without them, and in Drapier's view, most people would prefer to keep it that way. Bertie Ahern may yet learn that home thoughts are best not expressed abroad.

With that said, most business this week was abroad. Drapier has done the St Patrick's Day gig and does not envy those of his colleagues flying the flag in farflung corners.

It is hard work, full of receptions, speeches, official banquets, handshaking and with little or no time off for rest and recreation. What surprises Drapier is that so many of his colleagues not just enjoy, but still crave, that sort of thing.

Drapier tired of it very soon and had he been free this week he would have joined his intrepid colleagues at Cheltenham. Char- lie McCreevy at least got his priorities right and Drapier has no doubt that there was much satisfaction among colleagues at the victory of the Noel MeadePaul Carberry combination on Tuesday.

It is too soon yet to make any judgments on whether progress was made by the various parties talking in Washington on the North. There was very little optimism about and the prospect of a quick resumption finds few takers.

The truth is that no one knows what is going to happen. Whatever little trust there was has now disappeared and holes are being dug which get deeper by the day. Worse still, the relationship between the two governments has shown signs of vulnerability, a new and worrying development.

Only a fool would predict what will happen next. But Drapier has to fall back on the track record of those involved, the sustained progress so far, the ingenuity shown by the officials in squaring so many circles to-date and, most of all, the overwhelming desire on all sides for peace to continue.

Meanwhile, back home the problems of success continue to mount. To mention but a few, there is a simmering discontent among the teachers' unions and in the health service, while uncertainty grows over the future of the PPF and most of all over the inflation figures.

The EU tells us we are overheating. Economic commentators say inflation will get worse, overseas analysts make gloomy predications. Seamus Brennan tells us not to worry, the basics are sound. Charlie McCreevy says something similar, and Government sources hint at British jealousy of our success.

But anybody with a memory has to be worried. No boom lasts forever, which is not to say boom will necessarily be followed by bust, but we are at a stage where we may be losing control. Expectations have been raised and a good-time Government has lost the capacity to say "no".

The secondary teachers may have scored an own-goal with the leaked plan to disrupt the Leaving Cert, but their mood is sullen and their leaders are under great pressure. And they are not the only ones in this type of situation.

As our Ministers come back having told and sold the story of the Celtic Tiger, not once, but many times this past week, they will increasingly find themselves facing the less pleasant side of that tiger - a divided society which thinks less of community than of individual success and where the focus of each group becomes narrower and narrower as it concentrates on its own individual problems and ambitions.

It is going to be an interesting couple of months.