In his final round of consultations on the European Union's constitutional treaty and who is to lead the next European Commission, the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, is visiting France, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, Luxembourg and Denmark this week. It is an intensive and secretive mission ahead of the European Council in Brussels in two weeks time which must reach decisions on these issues. Most observers expect the Irish EU presidency to bring them to a successful conclusion - but nothing is certain until agreement is reached and there are several major potential pitfalls in view.
Four issues are still in contention on the constitutional treaty. The precise mechanism by which a double majority of member-states and the EU's population will be reached has yet to be agreed. Most decisions are now made by majority voting, so this is a crucial issue. Another contentious matter is whether this method of voting should be extended to several new areas. There is room for manoeuvre on the weightings and timescales involved and when a new system should be introduced; but much will depend on whether the Polish delegation can agree a compromise, given the complete impasse on forming a new government there.
The size and composition of the European Commission is the third difficult issue. Some states are still resisting the Irish presidency proposal that as from 2014 the Commission should have a maximum of 18 members, with a strictly equal rotation system applying. Although there will be ample time before then for the 10 new member-states to participate fully in the Commission, a number of them are not convinced that a larger Commission is necessarily less efficient. The fourth contentious issue is representation in the European Parliament. It is expected that agreement is within reach on a range of secondary issues, including a reference to Europe's Christian heritage in the treaty preamble. Following these consultations the Government must draft a set of compromise proposals for the final round of negotiations at the summit.
Bargaining over the next Commission president, to replace Mr Romano Prodi, is pitching centre-right against centre-left candidates and those preferring greater or lesser integration of the EU. The Belgian prime minister, Mr Guy Verhofstadt, Austria's Dr Wolfgang Schuessel and Denmark's Mr Anders Fogh Rasmussen are the leading contenders. So far there is little indication of support for Mr Pat Cox, while Mr Ahern has said repeatedly he does not want the job. It is a great pity the European elections coinciding with these negotiations are not more geared to debate the issues involved.