For a few years it was the travails, spats and internecine warfare of the UUP which was viewed by the Northern Irish media as the gift that kept on giving. Today it is the DUP.
For 50 years it kept all of its business under wraps and there was a suspicion that anyone found guilty of leaking party secrets was escorted to the backdoor of party headquarters and presented with a one-way ticket to Dante’s circles of hell.
Getting information out of the DUP – unless it wanted you to have it – used to be harder than getting the truth from a belligerent four-year-old about a missing trifle.
But over the past three years journalists and columnists have been beating off DUP “sources” with a thick stick. Five decades of angst were rolled out on a tidal wave, as one after another disgruntled MLA or MP pointed fingers and allocated blame.
It can all be sourced back to the Assembly election in March 2017: called when Martin McGuinness resigned over Arlene Foster’s refusal to stand aside as first minister while there was an inquiry into the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) saga. Ten DUP MLAs lost their seats four years earlier than expected and, for the first time ever and on the DUP’s watch, unionists lost their overall majority in a local assembly/parliament.
It was at that point knives were sharpened. Foster was saved by an election a few weeks later which put the DUP in the unexpected role of kingmakers at Westminster. What followed over the next couple of years was what many in the DUP now describe as Wagnerian-scale betrayal by Theresa May and Boris Johnson, ending with a protocol which has created an entirely new demarcation line between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. Again, all done on the DUP’s watch.
As the impact of the Irish Sea border kicked in six months ago and as anger from broader unionism, loyalism and the Orange Order intensified, the DUP’s elected members at Assembly, Westminster and local council levels became worried. There were reports of angry unionists/loyalists going to constituency offices to voice concerns, as well as anti-DUP graffiti and posters appearing in loyalist areas. The Loyalist Communities Council (representing the three paramilitary groups which supported the Belfast Agreement) withdrew its support for the agreement and a younger section of loyalism took to the streets in across-the-province protests.
Untenable position
By early January – when she appeared to soften her opinion of the protocol – Arlene Foster’s position was untenable. The collected anecdotal and polling evidence suggested the DUP’s core vote was unhappy with the party and Foster. A sacrifice was required and she was to be it. It took three months to organise the coup and the eventual winner, Edwin Poots, managed to win by only two votes, after a contest which displayed the party in the worst possible light.
Ironically, Poots was deposed because he, too, was accused of committing the cardinal sin of “going soft” on issues like saving devolution, co-operating with Sinn Féin, the protocol, North-South relations and agreeing to let Westminster deal with Sinn Féin’s request for movement on Irish language legislation if the Assembly wouldn’t. Worse, he agreed to it in the early hours of Wednesday morning and without bothering to consult his Assembly team, or anyone else for that matter.
By midday on Thursday, within minutes of securing the appointment of his friend and colleague Paul Givan as First Minister (saving the Executive in the process), his fate was sealed. Nine hours later his resignation statement was released by the party’s press office.
Uncharted waters
The DUP is in uncharted waters: serial crises. The sort of thing for which it once mocked the UUP. It is in a worse position today than it was when Arlene Foster stepped down from the leadership on May 28th. The Belfast Telegraph journalist Allison Morrison noted she had bottles of shampoo which had lasted longer than Poots’s leadership career. The in-tray he leaves his successor is actually larger than the one he inherited 21 days ago.
So, in which direction does the party go? That will depend on his successor – likely to be Jeffrey Donaldson. There is a growing mood in the party to up the ante. Members are extremely angry (as is most of unionism/loyalism) that the UK government seems willing to “rollover to Sinn Féin” on the Irish language, while ignoring their concerns about the protocol. Some are suggesting it needs to be made clear to Johnson that unionism will walk from the Assembly if the protocol isn’t removed entirely, rather than just tinkered with.
But forcing Johnson to choose between unionism and the protocol carries risks, not least that unionists worry what choice he would make; or what happens if they find themselves under a form of direct rule which does them no favours. Pressure on the DUP to remove Foster and Poots came from sources and organisations outside the party: and some of those sources are keen for the Assembly to be toppled anyway. Is the next leader going to be prepared to face down that pressure? Will MLAs, facing an election which must be held by next May, but maybe sooner, resist on-the-ground pressure which could cost them their seats?
The new leader will be chosen quickly, probably by the end of the month: slap bang in the middle of the marching season. It would be a brave leader who would suggest compromise during the next 10 weeks. My gut instinct is the Assembly will survive. Yet, unlike a few months ago, I make that prediction with very little confidence behind it.
Alex Kane is a political commentator and former communications director of the Ulster Unionist Party