A No vote in the forthcoming referendum in the Republic would be bad for Northern Ireland, writes Seán Farren
At first sight the forthcoming referendum on the Nice Treaty in the Republic appears to have no direct implications for Northern Ireland. On closer consideration, however, there is little doubt but that the consequences of a No vote would soon begin to impact negatively in the North as in the South.
The disruption caused to EU enlargement and the consequent loss of goodwill towards Ireland throughout the EU could have serious effects for the North. It was that goodwill, until now significant in ensuring that Ireland received sympathetic consideration within the EU on a wide range of matters, which helped produce, for example, the two special Peace Programmes. Since 1994 those programmes have brought major levels of additional investment to the North and to the Border counties.
This loss of goodwill would undoubtedly leave the South isolated and with fewer friends within the EU. This would be an unenviable situation for a small state and would take a long time to overcome. Such a situation could risk prospects for any replacement of the present peace programme which terminates in 2006. It is a risk with possible severe implications for community groups, North as well as South.
To the decline of goodwill towards Ireland would be added the view that the Republic, having gained enormously from EU membership, was now unwilling to allow other states to avail of the opportunities provided by EU membership to improve their economic performance and so raise living standards as the South has done. The North which has also benefited from considerable EU support risks being seen in the same light.
Representatives of applicant states appearing before the all-party National Forum on Europe in Dublin have been making it very clear how much importance they place on the South voting Yes. The disappointment and anger of such states towards Ireland for postponing their long-awaited entry into the EU would probably mean little or no distinction between North and South. Consequently, Northern Ireland would also feel some of the effects of this anger.
For the North as for the South, this could mean that access to markets in Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovenia and the Baltic states would be more difficult. International trade, as well as politics, depends to a considerable extend on goodwill and positive relationships among states.
On EU policies such as the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), where the South depends a great deal on the support of other states to ensure its interests are protected, the risk of isolation is even greater. Northern Ireland could be directly affected should the South's interests gain less sympathy than at present. Agriculture in the North has a great deal more in common with the industry in the South than with that in Britain. However, present British policy in Europe which favours rapid reform of the CAP would not be beneficial to the industry in Northern Ireland. A less sympathetic hearing for the South's more gradual approach to CAP reform would undoubtedly impact negatively on agriculture in Northern Ireland.
The case for a No vote is being promoted by parties and groups that include Sinn Féin. In the North, where the debate on the single currency is getting under way, Sinn Féin has already made clear its opposition to the euro. In its stand Sinn Féin finds itself in strange company alongside the DUP, sections of the UUP and other unionist groupings long opposed to EU membership, to the euro and to a an expanded role for EU institutions.
Contrary to Sinn Féin's stand, support for a positive approach to enlargement and for Ireland's general role in the EU is strong within the North's nationalist community and extends into some sections of the unionist community as well.
The fears raised by those opposed to the treaty are not widely shared in the North, certainly not by the nationalist community. Nationalists share in the pride in Ireland's long-established peacekeeping role in many of the world's trouble spots. They appreciate that Ireland has a responsibility to contribute to Europe's peacekeeping role under the auspices of the United Nations, and that membership of the European Rapid Reaction Force does not amount to being part of an aggressive military alliance.
Fears about large-scale migration to Ireland feed racist and xenophobic attitudes and are seen as unworthy of the Irish people, who have experienced migration and discrimination on a considerable scale throughout our own history. The many people from eastern Europe as well as from Africa who have migrated to the South in recent years, with much smaller numbers coming North, are regarded as people justifiably in search of a better life fleeing persecution and economic oppression.
As to fears about loss of sovereignty these also are not shared within the nationalist community. Nationalists have long regarded the pooling of sovereignty, not the loss of sovereignty as suggested by treaty opponents, as essential to building a Europe free from the divisions and conflicts of the past. Pooling sovereignty has been a progressive process since the foundation of the EU through what is arguably the world's greatest international demonstration of democratic decision-making and conflict resolution. Indeed, the EU provided a model of conflict resolution emulated in the Good Friday agreement.
It must be sincerely hoped that a resounding Yes vote will be returned in the forthcoming referendum. For Ireland, North and South, that is what is required.
Seán Farren MLA SDLP (North Antrim) is Minister of Finance and Personnel in the Northern Ireland Executive