Lieut Gen Gerry McMahon speculates on the possibilities of an Irish troop deployment to Iraq and, if so, in what form
The conventional phase of the war in Iraq is over for more than four months, but the unconventional phase continues with daily US/UK casualties.
Within the country chaos reigns, and the situation spirals out of control. This is a scenario, which the US political apparatus did not foresee.
Its military forces are untrained for such warfare, and have little experience in prosecuting low-intensity operations.
In a bid to share the burden, the US has asked others to help it carry the load, and is now engaged in negotiations at the UN Security Council to secure an enabling resolution to legitimise a UN support mission.
This is the same administration which turned its back on the UN and went to war in Iraq with minimal allied support and on doubtful premises.
With the exception of some emerging eastern European nations anxious to show their support for the US, most countries have so far declined the US invitation. This is certainly true in the case of the majority of EU states.
In Ireland the media have given all of this a local flavour by speculating on the deployment of Irish troops to Iraq.
Before this can happen, however, the Government has several legal obstacles to cross, and will have to consider other well-documented factors.
In the first instance, the Government will have to make a Cabinet decision to send troops to Iraq. If the contingent numbers more than 12 then the proposal will have to be placed before the Dáil.
Ireland currently has troops serving in places like Afghanistan and the Democratic Republic of Congo, with little awareness of the fact by either the public or opposition TDs. This is because the numbers are minuscule and well short of the "magic dozen".
This double lock has existed since the passing of the Defence (Amendment) Act 1960, prior to the deployment then of Irish troops to the Congo .
A third lock was introduced in June 2002 with the Seville Declaration, which stated that Irish military participation in missions overseas, including EU deployments, must have the authorisation of the UN Security Council or General Assembly.
While this declaration helped in the passing of the Nice referendum, it has caused some confusion.
For instance, an EU preventive deployment force, lightly armed, has been located in Macedonia for quite some time. It replaced a UN force which had to be withdrawn because China, angry at Macedonian recognition of Taiwan, vetoed an extension of the UN force's mandate.
With no chance of a UN mandate, the force was deployed without UN mandate and Ireland was debarred from participating in this EU mission deployed in Europe and contributing to European security.
In the case of Iraq no such impediment exists provided a UN resolution is forthcoming.
But other factors must also be taken into consideration when the Government considers the deployment of troops overseas. These were contained in the White Paper on Foreign Policy of 1996.
It is these considerations, rather than the triple lock, which will guide the Government decision.
The first concerns whether a UN peacekeeping mission is an appropriate response to the problems on the ground - in the case of Iraq whether the time is ripe for such a response.
UN peace support missions, to be successful, require a degree of stability in the area of operations. This can be achieved through political agreement and support on the ground backed up by an agreed truce or ceasefire. In situations where such agreement is less than adequate, massive military strength is required.
The US contributed this force in Bosnia, but in Iraq the US military is now part of the problem. The time is hardly ripe yet for peace support intervention.
Next, the Government must consider if involvement in Iraq would support Irish foreign policy priorities.
We opposed the Iraqi war because it had no UN mandate. Subsequently we were ambivalent enough to allow the US to use Shannon as a transit base. We were not, therefore, neutral in the conflict and we could continue to show official support for the US by deploying troops. Our action would also ensure that Ireland would remain a prime location for US investment.
Next, in considering risk to our troops, one has to conclude that currently there is a high risk of casualties. The risks associated with peacekeeping have not stopped the deployment of Irish troops in the past to high-risk areas such as Congo, Lebanon, Somalia, Bosnia and Kosovo, but the current security situation in Iraq would give the Government pause in any decision.
And the Government must consider if current Irish military capabilities would be adequate. The Minister for Defence has trumpeted the purchase of APCs repeatedly for the past six years. While, of course, great that the Irish military is being brought up to date after decades of neglect, the fact remains that at the current rate of investment Ireland will never be capable of peace support operations at the higher level of intensity.
We will continue to have the capabilities for peacekeeping at the lower level, but where the intensity is high we will only be able to fill the role of a small cog in a larger military machine. This is evident in our deployments since the withdrawal of our battalion in Lebanon. We had 40 military police in Bosnia, 100 transport personnel in Kosovo, 30 infantry personnel for a time in East Timor.
The current plan to provide an Irish infantry company and some staff as part of a Finnish battalion in the proposed EU-led and UN-mandated force in Bosnia says it all. The days of Ireland providing a basic infantry unit, a battalion, for peace support operations are over.
In considering factors such as realistic objectives and clear mandates, there is a long way to go yet before a clear picture emerges. The US will not relinquish overall control, and will ensure that the reporting mechanisms between a UN force in Iraq and its directing HQ will go to Washington rather than UN New York.
The US would prefer, and is currently insisting on, a UN resolution which sub-contracts the Iraq military mission to a US-led coalition of the willing. The Government will have to consider closely our involvement in such a force, although the EU will probably lead us on this.
Concern about whether the mission is adequately resourced is a consideration which goes back to the early days of our involvement in UN operations. At that time Ireland complained every time that an operation did not make a profit from peacekeeping.
This was when the UN paid a rental for Irish troops and their personal equipment and fully reimbursed us for heavy equipment over four years of use. Nowadays we pay all our own peacekeeping costs so there is always concern in the Departments of Finance and Defence about the bill for peacekeeping.
The final consideration for the Government will be whether we have the manpower available for a peace support mission in Iraq.
In the mid to late 1990s, we had 850 troops overseas, including a major unit or battalion group. Following on the PriceWaterhouse review, the Army's strength was reduced by 10 per cent. Almost immediately the Defence White Paper reduced the Army strength by a further 10 per cent.
With the Army now at three-quarters of its former strength, Ireland no longer has the ability to deploy previous numbers to peacekeeping, and currently less than 200 are on overseas service.
Faced with these realities the Government has gone along with deployment in penny packets throughout the world. It is unlikely to change that now.
In summary, there is no legal stay on our deployment of troops to Iraq provided a proper UN mandate is in place. When, however, the Government considers the other factors, if we are to see any Irish deployment it is likely to be minuscule and composed of elements deployed away from the more dangerous operations.
By following such a policy the Government will be able to assure the US of our support,be seen to be supporting EU policy, announce our undying support for the UN, and do it all at minimum risk and cost.
Lieut Gen Gerry McMahon is a former Chief of Staff of the Defence Forces who during his career had widespread peacekeeping experience worldwide.