No more severe test of the Israeli prime minister, Mr Ariel Sharon's political will and intentions can be imagined than the assassination of one of his cabinet ministers by a Palestinian group. He told Israeli ministers shortly after the murder of Mr Rehavam Zeevi yesterday that "nothing will be the same again" and pinned responsibility on Mr Yasser Arafat. A belligerent Israeli response could undo the progress made in recent days as sustained international pressure has been exerted on Mr Sharon to reopen negotiations with Mr Arafat, so as to sustain the international coalition against terrorism. Much will depend on how effective are Mr Arafat's orders yesterday that those responsible for the assassination be arrested.
The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), which admitted it assassinated Mr Zeevi, said it was in retaliation for the Israeli murder of its leader, Mr Mustafa Zibri, last August 27th. There can be no justification for either action. Both will contribute to an escalating spiral of violence. The urge to retaliate obfuscates or contradicts longer term mutual interests in returning to a peace process, all the more so given the transformed international setting of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It is important as a major contributory factor in the crisis that has developed since the attacks on New York and Washington, making it more difficult to sustain the regional coalition supporting the US-led military action against Afghanistan. That is why such a big effort has been made by US and European leaders to contain and redirect developing events towards negotiations.
As recently as Tuesday evening Mr Sharon signalled a significant change of policy towards peace negotiations when he announced for the first time that he personally would lead any Israeli delegation. He set out the parameters of his approach towards the peace process. They are more minimal than those of his Labour predecessor, Mr Ehud Barak, but clearly represent a response to US and European pressures. Two weeks ago Mr Sharon denounced US attempts to sacrifice Israel by appeasing the Arabs and said he would not go along with them, an attitude described by the White House as unacceptable.
The assassination of Mr Zeevi will test to the limits Mr Sharon's commitment to a stable international coalition against terrorism. Should he strike out extensively against Palestinian targets in the West Bank and Gaza or, even worse, be tempted to attack Syria, where the PFLP's headquarters are based, the consequences could be profound. Just as the international coalition needs to be at its most united this setback could destabilise it, diverting attention from the military action against Afghanistan.
If Mr Sharon truly believes nothing will be the same again and acts on that belief the international crisis may be deepened, dangerously and unpredictably. Mr Arafat can affect that by taking prompt and decisive action against the PFLP. But his leeway to do so has been undermined by Israel's own resort to assassination of political opponents, undermining Mr Arafat's standing and authority. Both sides need international pressure, help and understanding to head off such an escalation.