Marriage breakdown, separation, divorce and remarriage after divorce form a complex set of issues in respect of which the data available in Ireland are incomplete, writes Garret FitzGerald.
This is partly because divorce has existed here since 1997, but a further complication is the fact that, because far more women than men have been deserted by their spouses and, because many men appear unwilling to disclose their desertion on the census forms, the reported male rate of marriage breakdown is one-sixth lower than that for women. So the data in respect of women give a much more reliable picture of marriage breakdown.
The 2002 census gave us a snapshot of the situation, showing an overall marriage breakdown rate of 10.5 per cent for women. However, this figure was greatly influenced by the much lower breakdown rate among older women: only about 4 per cent in the case of those over 70. By contrast, almost 14 per cent of women in their 40s reported a breakdown in their marriages. Overall, about 4.5 per cent of women were actually divorced, in 2002, one-third of whom had remarried.
Marriage breakdown continues well beyond age 50 but, presumably because the timing of marriage breakdowns had shifted back to younger age groups, the breakdown rate for these older age groups had slowed down significantly after 1996.
Allowing for this factor it seems likely that the ultimate breakdown rate for women now in their 40s may not rise much above 20 per cent. Depressing though any significant level of marriage breakdown is, this would be very much below the breakdown rate of most other northern European countries.
Our current ratio of actual divorces to marriages, as distinct from breakdowns including separation, is about one in six, and it seems unlikely that the eventual Irish divorce rate will reach or exceed 20 per cent. This would contrast sharply with northern and eastern Europe, in much of which the total divorce rate is around 40 to 45 per cent, but somewhat higher in most Scandinavian countries and in Russia. However in Greece, Spain and Italy it is much lower, around the same level as here. In Northern Ireland it is around 33 per cent.
Unfortunately we have no census data on the proportion of marriage breakdowns that involve families with dependent children, but the fact that 70 per cent of our marriage breakdowns currently occur before women reach the age of 50 suggests that quite a disturbingly high proportion must do so.
It seems clear, however, that the fears about the likely scale of divorce in Ireland that were expressed at the time of our two divorce referendums have not been, and are unlikely to be, realised. It always seemed improbable that divorce in Ireland would ever approach the level of other northern European countries, but in the heated atmosphere of a controversial referendum wild claims tend to be made - and often believed.
Our first divorce referendum showed how public opinion can be skilfully manipulated during such a campaign. During the final three weeks of the debate no less than one-quarter of all voters were persuaded to change their minds.
Support for the introduction of a restrictive form of divorce dropped during that period from 63 per cent to 38 per cent, in response to fears aroused by opponents of this change, who simultaneously persuaded many men that they would be taken to the cleaners by unscrupulous wives, and many wives that their husbands would cut them off without a penny.
It has been argued that the 1985 divorce proposal might have been accepted at that time if details of the legislation to implement such a constitutional change had been made available before the referendum.
That is a reasonable point, and in retrospect I can accept that I may have been fastidious in taking the view that it would have been improper to prepare and announce details of divorce legislation at a time when it would still have been unconstitutional.
Nevertheless in the light of the fact that even a decade later, with full details of implementing legislation then before the public, the proposition was approved by a margin of less than 1 per cent, it seems highly unlikely that such a procedure would have secured the passage of this constitutional change in 1985.
I have to say that I found both debates on this constitutional issue profoundly depressing. The reason some provision for divorce had become necessary was that in its absence an increasingly significant proportion of people were entering into second unions which lacked any recognition by either the Catholic Church or the State, and in many cases the status of children born to these second unions was perforce non-marital, even though their parents would have wished marital recognition to have been given to their offspring.
Moreover, there was a growing problem of foreign divorces of dubious legal validity; because Irish spouses seeking a divorce abroad whilst clearly intending to live in Ireland with a new spouse had not been in a position validly to claim domicile elsewhere.
Up to the 1970s an argument might have been made that by excluding divorce as an option a social climate was being maintained that was more conducive to people staying together at moments when their marriages might be going through a rocky period. But by the 1970s the balance seemed to me to be shifting in favour of the introduction of divorce provisions that would resolve what was becoming a growing social problem.
What I found irritating about the two divorce campaigns was that the merits or otherwise of this approach to the problem were never debated, despite my efforts in the first campaign to bring this issue before the public in these terms.
It is interesting, and to me a little surprising, that although in the 2002 census more than 93 per cent of people aged 25-44 declared a religious affiliation, no less than 23 per cent were by then choosing a civil rather than a religious marriage.