It's back to the old politics of who jumps first, the IRA or the British government, writes Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor
Northern Ireland is girding itself for a period of Big Bang politics after the British queen took time out from her own troubles yesterday to set in motion another critical stage of the peace process.
Tony Blair pledges that one quantum leap from the IRA will trigger an equally quantum leap from the British government in terms of the full and speedy implementation of outstanding elements of the Belfast Agreement.
It's back to the old politics of who jumps first, the IRA or the British government. The solution - if such is possible - probably will be both jumping together. The difference this time, according to the British Prime Minister at least, is that the leap must be of such a soaring quality that with one bound Northern Ireland finally emerges from the politics of recrimination and deadlock.
Unveiling the agenda for the British parliamentary ahead Queen Elizabeth said: "Legislation will be brought forward on policing in Northern Ireland." And almost as tersely, she added: "In Northern Ireland my government will continue to work closely with the political parties and the Irish Government to secure the full implementation of the Belfast Agreement."
At the same time the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen, and the new Northern Secretary Mr Paul Murphy were writing to all the Northern parties urging them back to the negotiating table.
So, multi-party talks next Thursday - or as multi as the boycotting DUP will allow - with publication of the details of the new policing legislation in the next two weeks.
The talks at Parliament Buildings could collapse into recrimination. In fact such an initial bout of bad-mouthing could be useful in that it might burn up some of the negative political energy that has gripped Northern Ireland.
After that, however, the parties must decide whether they are serious or not. Mr Cowen and Mr Murphy might suffer a few hours of the blame game, but thereafter they will be demanding bottom-line statements from all the parties.
Mr Blair in his Harbour Commissioners speech and in his Irish Times interview with our London Editor, Frank Millar, last week spelt out the options for all the protagonists: the alternatives are between political stagnation and political breakthrough.
Some of the elements that could take us out of the deadlock are being put in place. Most crucially, details of amending policing legislation is promised within a fortnight.
What was to the SDLP at Weston Park last year dealing with issues such as accountability and greater powers for the Policing Board and Police Ombudsman will be delivered, according to London and Dublin sources.
But just pleasing the SDLP won't bring Sinn Féin on to the Policing Board. And as many politicians have acknowledged, persuading Gerry Adams to sign up to the board will be one of the biggest political prizes because it will be the clearest signal yet that the IRA's war is over, regardless of foreign adventures or espionage.
Additional to Weston Park, Sinn Féin has difficulties over matters such as the Special Branch - as has the SDLP - and allowing former convicted paramilitaries join the District Policing Partnerships, which hold the police accountable at local level.
There can be little doubt that, after the scandals and blunders surrounding the RUC Special Branch, within the new Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) the days of the Branch being a "force within a force" are numbered.
Bringing former IRA members on to the District Policing Partnerships is more problematic, however, but it appears to be conditionally possible. As one Dublin source said: "We have to be conscious of sensitivities here. We don't want unionists to balk and walk [from the Policing Board]." He added, however, that if Sinn Féin were to join the board then the British government in publishing details of the policing legislation might permit a clause whereby in such an eventuality ex-paramilitaries could join the DPPs.
It mightn't please the Ulster Unionists, but if it meant that police could safely patrol in west Belfast and south Armagh then great pressure would be exerted to persuade them to acknowledge the advantage of having Sinn Féin in the policing tent.
Dublin, the SDLP and Sinn Féin also say Ulster Unionists must demonstrate their commitment to the agreement. The constant calling of divisive Ulster Unionist Council meetings merely serves to undermine the institutions. Could Mr Trimble not bring his organisation to order? they wonder.
Mr Adams in particular would also want assurances that, were the IRA to make that Bob Beamon leap, Mr Trimble wouldn't act the dog in the manger.
Plastic bullets are also a problem. Sinn Féin wants them banned. The British government says it is working to limit their use, but that there could be periods of public disorder when they were unfortunately necessary. The Policing Board is engaged in studies to determine if there is an alternative to plastic bullets and, if Sinn Féin really wants to end the impasse, then there is at least potential for a compromise on this issue.
The highest hurdle obviously is Mr Blair's insistence, supported by the Taoiseach, that the time for inch-by-inch politics is over, that the IRA must demonstrate it is removing itself from the political equation.
Mr Blair has been extremely careful not to be prescriptive here. He has resisted all temptations to use the d-word, "disbandment", because he realises that ultimatums generally don't work with P. O'Neill.
But he is adamant that the only way out of political crisis is by the politics of the Big Bang. Serious movement from the IRA will result in issues like demilitarisation, policing, stabilising the institutions and other matters being delivered, is the Prime Minister's promise.
Sinn Féin is indicating it is willing to be courted. A comment from Martin McGuinness to Tommie Gorman on RTE's Prime Time programme last week illustrates that a solution is possible, although it could take deep into the new year before there is sufficient trust to permit it to be realised.
"This is huge stuff. This is really big-picture stuff," said Sinn Féin's chief negotiator, actually agreeing with Mr Blair's notion. "Seeing the British government moving decisively to deal with all of those issues, I think that that does, or would, pose a huge challenge to everybody within the process to recognise that the inch-by-inch approach is over, and that effectively we're moving in here to try and resolve all of this at one fell swoop."