The great unresolved question of Mr Tony Blair's seven- year term as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom has been his country's future relationship with the European Union. He made this a central issue during the 1997 election campaign, attacking Mr John Major for his prevarication on the subject. Despite his repeated calls for Britain to take its place at the centre of the EU since then, Mr Blair has failed to bring voters along with his vision, largely because he has not confronted the issue head on.
His decision to call a referendum on the EU's constitutional treaty will now address it directly and this is welcome. But it flows more from weakness than strength, from political expediency more than principle. It is a risky strategy which could be turned to great political advantage; but because it confronts the issue belatedly, Mr Blair has much ground to make up if he is to win the argument. Although the referendum will be held on the text of the constitutional treaty, assuming it is agreed in coming weeks, the underlying question is whether the UK is in or out of the EU. Mr Blair will have to convince voters this is what is at stake.
The difficulties he will face were well illustrated in yesterday's Commons exchanges with the Conservative leader, Mr Michael Howard, about what will happen if the voters reject the treaty. Mr Blair says it would fall but could be renegotiated and put once again to the electorate, as happened with the Nice Treaty in Ireland. But in that case it seems a less portentous decision than the one he is presenting. His argument that a referendum is necessitated by the Conservative decision to renegotiate the treaty if they return to government after the next general election does not carry as much weight as Mr Blair's fear that if he failed to call one he would lose the support of Eurosceptic media controlled by Mr Rupert Murdoch during the election campaign.
Thus the tactical one-upmanship on the Conservative opposition achieved by taking the issue ostensibly out of the campaign could rebound on Mr Blair. He insists the referendum will not be held until after any treaty has been debated in parliament, effectively until after the election. He will now have to convince voters that the constitution is truly deserving of a referendum, having previously argued it is mainly a tidying up exercise. Other EU governments are worried by the implications, especially for France; they also believe Mr Blair's political need to secure his negotiating points will make it more difficult to reach agreement on the treaty text by the June deadline.
A great deal is at stake for Britain's role in Europe as these events unfold. A vote in favour of the treaty would resolve the issue in favour of a much fuller involvement and would open the way for a decision on joining the euro. Achieving it will require a major political effort.