The decision of the Independent TD Niall Blaney to join Fianna Fáil this week, and the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party's enthusiastic reception for him, has a lot more to do with realpolitik considerations for 2007 then it has to do with the resolving political events of the early 1970s, writes Noel Whelan
A strong sense of gratitude for Niall Blaney's consistent support in the current Dáil and for that of his father Harry Blaney in the previous Dáil - when it really mattered - is part of what has motivated Bertie Ahern to give this political reintegration project so much of his personal attention. The move also fits well with his great conciliator legacy as Fianna Fáil leader. In returning the Blaney organisation formally to the fold, he has achieved a rapprochement which eluded even Charles Haughey.
This week's events also have an emotional dimension. Many older Fianna Fáil rank and file will have personal memories of Neil T Blaney, the current deputy's late uncle, when he was one of the party's leading personalities. Many younger members too have been weaned on tales of the legendary Blaney's political and organisation skills, particularly as director of election in various byelections in the 1950s and 1960s. Indeed, Neil T Blaney remained a folk hero in Fianna Fáil long after he left its ranks. Chants of "We Want Blaney, We Want Blaney" used to sweep the RDS when the ritual motion calling for his return to the party came up for debate at Fianna Fáil ardfheiseanna in the 1980s and early 1990s.
The precise detail of the circumstances surrounding the break between the party and Neil T in the aftermath of the Arms Crisis in 1970 have long since blurred in the party's corporate memory at national level (although some in Donegal still remember them in sharp focus). Any remnants of differences between Fianna Fáil and Independent Fianna Fáil on Northern Ireland policy have also been subsumed in the nationalist political consensus of the last decade.
Indeed, it surprised many that the merger of the two organisations did not occur during Harry Blaney's time in the Dáil between 1997 and 2002, although there were good electoral reasons why it did not make sense then. With Celia Keaveney, herself a daughter of a former Blaneyite TD, in situ in Inishowen and Jim McDaid then solid in Letterkenny, leaving the Rossnakil-based Harry Blaney outside the formal Fianna Fáil tent for the 2002 election was the best way of ensuring that Donegal North East retained its unique status as a constituency returning all three deputies as supporters of Bertie Ahern in the subsequent vote for Taoiseach.
Electoral considerations now operate in the opposite direction. A combination of national and local political trends means that Ahern cannot be guaranteed even two votes from Donegal North East when he next faces a vote for Taoiseach sometime in 2007.
Personal political ambition was Niall Blaney's primary motivation for this week's move. He and his organisation will have known that if he remained outside of Fianna Fáil, then he would almost definitely have lost his Dáil seat in next year's election. Although his vote dipped in his last election in 1995, Neil T Blaney traditionally polled on average about 25 per cent of the first-preference vote in Donegal North East. Harry Blaney polled 21 per cent in the one election he won in 1997. Young Niall Blaney got just under 17 per cent in the 2002 election. There are no guarantees that Niall Blaney can hold his seat even as an official Fianna Fáil candidate in next year's election, but consolidating his resources presents the best prospect of Fianna Fáil holding two seats.
The recruitment of Blaney will give Fianna Fáil new impetus, but it still faces two growing political forces in this constituency.
In the last general election, Fine Gael got more than three-quarters of a quota and would probably have won a seat if they had run only one candidate instead of two. This time Senator Joe McHugh will be their only candidate and Donegal North East is a real prospect for a Fine Gael gain, although that task has not been made easier by the decision of a son of the party's former deputy Paddy Harte to run as an Independent.
Sinn Féin also has good reason to see Donegal North East as a potential gain. Pádraig McLaughlin, who got just under half a quota in 2002, is running again.
The pace at which the merger is being implemented has intensified the backlash within the local Fianna Fáil organisation in Donegal. In politics, as in many things, Donegal operates at times like an independent republic. Contributing to these local difficulties is the fact that young Blaney's arrival threatens to scupper the ambitions of some Fianna Fáil councillors, who had reason to believe their chance for a Dáil run had come when Jim McDaid announced last April that he would be retiring.
In an unexpected twist, the controversy has now prompted McDaid to talk to the media about running again, after all. This may not turn out to be the case when the convention is ultimately held in the autumn - if indeed a convention is held. The party says it is deferring a decision on whether to run two or three candidates pending further polling. This polling presumably is designed to test how Blaney fairs under the Fianna Fáil brand, particularly in the Letterkenny area.
Things will be rocky in Fianna Fáil in Donegal North East for the next few months. Bertie Ahern will be hoping these creative tensions can be channelled positively.