THAT ZIMBABWE's presidential elections are "very unlikely to be free and fair" is a real understatement when seen in the light of the vicious terror campaign being waged against opposition voters by supporters of Robert Mugabe's regime. Nonetheless yesterday's statement by Tanzania, Angola and Swaziland on behalf of the Southern African Development Community represents a significant political initiative by regional leaders. They face a major decision now on whether to recommend abandoning next week's elections altogether.
It will be difficult for them to do that if Zimbabwe opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai persists with the campaign run by his Movement for Democratic Change despite the violence. He has resisted the proposal, repeated yesterday by South African president Thabo Mbeki in Harare, that instead of this vote Mr Mugabe and Mr Tsvangirai should negotiate a coalition arrangement to share power. Mr Tsvangirai is convinced he and his party would be swallowed up in such a coalition. In particular, Mr Mugabe and several Zimbabwe military leaders say that irrespective of the result, the army will continue its "liberation campaign" against any attempt to remove them from power. They associate Mr Tsvangirai falsely and maliciously with the previous white supremacists and their attempts to roll back Zimbabwe's independence. The military are thinking beyond Mr Mugabe to ensure they can nominate his successor on the back of this election.
Effectively this strategy amounts to a declaration of civil war against opponents of the Mugabe regime which had already begun during the presidential election. The trappings and residue of legality disguise this reality. They include the regime's grudging and belated concession of the March 29th parliamentary elections to the opposition and manipulation of the presidential results to enable this run-off election, because Mr Tsvangirai allegedly did not win 50 per cent. Since then a systematic campaign of terror and violence has been run in constituencies which voted for opposition candidates, especially in rural areas. Voters are being told to support Mr Mugabe on pain of prolonged and dangerous civil conflict. This is a frightful threat, coming on top of the 80 per cent unemployment, runaway inflation and high emigration that has devastated the economy.
It is a great tribute to the courage of opposition supporters that it takes such threats to put them down and that Mr Tsvangirai persists with his campaign. He hopes continuing support in urban areas will offset the blatant rural intimidation. He relies on southern African leaders to express their anger and concern, giving a lead to other international bodies, including United Nations secretary general Ban Ki-moon. They have belatedly found voice on these issues and must now maintain their pressure and ensure the hundreds of election observers they have deployed can report effectively on the results.
Whatever happens next week Zimbabwe faces a traumatic political future, with potentially profound regional consequences. It is a terrible waste of hope and promise.