A Border poll would stiffen the resolve of pro-Belfast Agreement unionistsand help save David Trimble's moderate leadership, argues Steven King
Why has David Trimble been making the case in recent months for a Border poll - a referendum on Northern Ireland's place within the United Kingdom?
In Dublin the idea has been dismissed as either a rhetorical flourish for the benefit of the party faithful or, worse, as the Taoiseach has described it, a zany, premature and divisive contribution.
On the contrary, it is the UUP leader's firm belief that such a poll is the only way to stabilise pro-agreement unionist opinion which is currently very much on the defensive. It would give confidence to the unionist community by demonstrating that, whatever else, the Belfast Agreement is not programmed towards a unitary state and that republicanism is not in sole control of the process.
The Border poll concept first emerged in British government thinking in 1971, when London was trying to nudge Brian Faulkner towards a power-sharing deal.
The idea was that such a poll would so firmly secure the Union on the basis of the principle of consent that it would give unionist moderates the necessary elbow-room to bring nationalists into the government of Northern Ireland for the first time.
The underlying rationale was to separate internal political reform from the perception of creeping unification. By bolstering the consent basis of the Union, it was designed to make unionist compromises with Irish nationalism easier. In 1971 Brian Faulkner did not have the nerve for such a bold strategic manoeuvre. It would be ironic if over three decades later Bertie Ahern were to demonstrate a similar timidity and allow this current and best chance for stable power-sharing government to slip away.
The concept re-emerged in 1973, following the dissolution of the Stormont Parliament, and a Border poll - the first referendum held in the UK - undoubtedly provided some of the psychological reassurance necessary to allow a braver Brian Faulkner to negotiate the Sunningdale deal.
It follows that there is nothing intrinsically bizarre or polarising in the Border poll concept. Instead, it has always been linked with the doctrine of consent and the effort to sustain cross-community governance of the North.
It has been suggested by Dr Martin Mansergh, among others, that the holding of a referendum on the same date as the next Assembly elections would add a new element of rancour to the political discourse in Northern Ireland. Rather, it is not practical before that and after the Assembly elections it could well be too late.
The carefully constructed edifice negotiated on Good Friday 1998 could be in tatters, with destabilising consequences for the whole island of Ireland. Let no one be under any illusion. As things stand we are on course for an election campaign in 2003 that will, undoubtedly, be more bitter than anything Northern Ireland has ever seen, as Sinn Féin attempts to finish the job of destroying the SDLP and the DUP seeks to surpass the UUP.
Some hallucinate about a DUP/ Sinn Féin deal. In the real world, the chances of the DUP backwoodsmen going through the lobbies to elect a First Minister or Deputy First Minister belonging to the political wing of the IRA are negligible to say the least.
The dynamics of an election campaign will force even the most ardent devolutionists in the DUP to put on the record their abhorrence for such an eventuality.
How else are they going to win votes from a UUP which has hardliners such as Jeffrey Donaldson and David Burnside on the party ticket? But it is not just a matter of whether Northern Ireland is going to have a horribly bitter campaign: that is a given. The key question is the outcome.
If a Border poll is held on the same day as the election the likelihood is that moderates will vote rather than stay at home as they all too invariably do. Very simply, the stakes will have risen and the famously apolitical middle classes will no longer be afforded the luxury of holding their noses.
Fundamental issues of allegiance and stability in both the economic and political senses will have been raised. In 1973 it is clear that support for the Union significantly outstripped support for the unionist parties and there is no reason to believe that that is not still the case.
This time, however, unlike in 1973, there would be no nationalist boycott.
The overwhelming majority of Catholics will vote with their emotions in favour of Irish unity even if, in many cases, that will spell material disadvantage. They will do so, though, in the secure knowledge that there will be a substantial majority for the Union, comprising virtually all Protestants and also a small but statistically significant number of Catholics.
When the dust has settled it will be clear that Northern Ireland's place within the UK is secure for the foreseeable future. The exaggerated fears unionists have about their demographic position - fears that feed into the sectarian bitterness at the interfaces, most glaringly at Holy Cross - will have been eased. This will not be an opportunity for flag-waving, though, but the necessary precondition for the consolidation of power-sharing democracy.
The unionist leadership has paid particular attention to the balance of forces within nationalism. It has noticed how the SDLP's intention to develop the theme of post-nationalism has been thwarted by the rabid ethnic politics of Sinn Féin.
Rather than being seen as a threat, constitutional nationalists North and South should welcome a constructive proposal, which would give a boost to the consent principle. Sinn Féin's strategy of tension - which has done so much harm not only to isolated Protestant communities but also the SDLP - is dependent on the notion that the transition to Irish unity is a credible task for this generation.
A Border poll would create the context in which those nationalists who genuinely believe in the principle of consent and genuinely want to win Protestants to the case for Irish unity would appear not as the Uncle Toms they do now, but as the realistic as well as generous defenders of the best ideals of Irish nationalism.
For that reason, alone it is time for the Irish Government to revise its hostile stance.
Steven King is a political adviser to David Trimble