The elements for a dangerous escalation in Israel's conflict with Lebanon fell into place yesterday, as did those that could calm and mediate it. Statements by the Syrian and Iranian governments that they would respond fiercely to any Israeli attack on them pointed to the potential for a disastrous regional conflict growing out of the confrontation between Hizbullah, Lebanon and Israel. Last night's agreed statement by the Group of Eight summit in St Petersburg deplored the influence of extremists in the Middle East, called on Hizbullah to release the Israeli soldiers it captured last week and to cease its rocket attacks on Israel, and on Israel to show the utmost restraint in its attacks on Lebanese civilians and infrastructure.
It is fortunate that the G8 summit should have coincided with the intensification of fighting and the terrible toll it has so rapidly imposed on ordinary Lebanese and Israelis. Present at that meeting are most of the major world powers with an interest in the Middle East and which have the capacity to do something about it. A central feature of this crisis is that they have different sympathies and approaches towards the events of recent days and what has given rise to them. President Bush has effectively supported Israel's analysis and actions, the French and Russians have heavily criticised them, while the Germans and British actively seek a consensus, backed up by European Union representatives.
These differences badly needed to be thrashed out towards a possible consensus which could bear fruit in a United Nations resolution. Last night's G8 statement goes some of the way in that direction, although it is weak as to the political means and agency that could be applied on all the parties. To that extent it fails to substitute for Mr Bush's refusal to adopt a brokering role in the crisis. So far this has given Israeli leaders a mandate for their quite disproportionate declaration of war on the Lebanese government which it accuses of refusing to confront and disarm Hizbullah. Israel's stated war aim to change the rules of the game in southern Lebanon by eliminating Hizbullah's armed presence there cannot be achieved by military force alone. It is likely to provoke another civil war in that country, which in turn would draw Syria and Iran into a regional war.
It is vital to prevent that scenario developing in coming days and weeks. Doing so will require that the G8's political initiative be translated immediately into a functional effort by the United Nations Security Council to seek a ceasefire, disengagement and mediation of the conflict. Each of the major powers attending the St Petersburg summit have leverage over those involved. They must use it in coming days to pressure Hizbullah and Hamas to release prisoners, Israel to stop punishing Lebanese and Palestinian civilians and to broker a ceasefire. Unless these efforts are also geared to revive the peace process between the Palestinians and Israelis they will be stillborn.