The changing face of Irish agriculture has been charted in a report from Teagasc, the farm advisory service, which suggests that the number of full-time farmers in dairying will more than halve by 2015, while the percentage of viable beef and tillage farms will fall precipitously as a consequence of concessions proposed in a new world trade agreement.
The figures are stark and startling. And while they quantify a trend that has been under way for some years, they do not reflect the full picture.
The majority of Irish farmers are now part-time. They - and frequently their wives - boost family income by engaging in off-farm employment in adjoining towns and villages. Such flexibility can offer the best of both worlds: a steady income stream and an enjoyable and fulfilling country lifestyle. But this is not the choice of those young people who aspire to become full-time farmers. In their cases, the Government's response in introducing necessary structural reforms has been slow and inadequate.
An estimated 240,000 people, including spouses and family members, still work on farms on a full or a part-time basis. And farming is the principal occupation of about 113,000 individuals. Last year, because of the introduction of the Common Agricultural Policy decoupling system, involving cheques in the post, farm incomes rose by about 20 per cent. But that was a once-off benefit. The impact of such payments will decline.
Before that happens, the Government must address the changing circumstances of agriculture. The Minister for Agriculture, Mary Coughlan, has recognised the need for action in reforming and modernising the sector. But details of investment programmes have been withheld pending publication of a National Development Plan, 2007-13, early next year. That is not good enough. There is a need to consolidate farm holdings, reform the milk quota system and restructure the beef and dairy industries. Further research and development within the food-processing sector must be encouraged. The production of biofuels should be incentivised. And greater emphasis should be placed on the production of high-quality foods, aimed at the expensive end of the consumer market.
It is likely that full-time farming will become concentrated in the east and south and - in about 20 years - will involve fewer than 15,000 farmers. Falling farm output could threaten the viability of food-processing plants. And employment within the building industry, a major element in off-farm employment at the moment, may decline. That is why the Government should introduce a balanced regional development programme that will spread employment and opportunity more widely.