Rite and Reason Over the past six years 10 Catholic priests have died for every one ordained. The result is "catastrophic", writes Fr Gerard Moloney.
Fr Tom is a parish priest in a rural Irish diocese. The population of the parish is not large, but it is geographically spread out, with two churches at opposite ends of the parish.
Until last year, Fr Tom was assisted by his elderly predecessor, who acted as his curate. But when Fr Tom's colleague died suddenly, he was not replaced. Nor will he be. The reason is simple - there is no priest to replace him. There are no spare priests to go around.
So now Fr Tom ministers on his own. He is on call 24 hours a day seven days a week, and is able to take a few hours away from his parish only when his equally busy colleague in the parish next door can cover for him.
Fr Tom's story is far from unique.
There are many more like him in parishes up and down the country (and in parishes throughout the western world), one-man bands, aging, tired and increasingly burned-out - trying to serve their people as best they can. Though they have no curates to help them, they still have to fulfil the entire range of priestly duties which do not diminish even as the number of clergy goes down.
They have to celebrate Mass and the sacraments, visit the sick and the schools, chair committees, prepare homilies, comfort the bereaved, as well as be available morning, noon and night to respond to whatever emergency may arise.
And the number of one-man parishes, and of no-man parishes, will continue to increase. It is inevitable.
Since November 1st, 2000, 1,173 Irish priests have died. In the same period, 101 Irish priests have been ordained.
That means that one diocesan priest in five is being replaced at present, and just one religious/missionary priest in 30.
On average, the deaths of Irish priests continue to outnumber ordinations more than tenfold.
In 2005, 199 Irish priests died, whereas only eight priests were ordained (Intercom magazine, July/August2006).
And this does not take into account clergy who have left the active ministry.
These statistics are catastrophic. And they will get only worse.
Priests are an aging band of brothers. The numbers in ministry will continue to fall - and the decline will accelerate - and old men past retirement age will be asked to take on more and more.
This is good news for the Catholic Church's enemies and for those who want to eliminate religion from society but it is a tragedy for those who love the church.
For a church with a small and aging bunch of clergy will not be a vibrant church - no matter how good or committed those clergy are.
And parishes without priests are parishes where the Eucharist cannot be celebrated - no matter how many active, enthusiastic lay ministers may be involved in those parishes.
And the other tragedy for the church is that there is no short or medium-term solution to this crisis.
The number of seminarians in training is tiny and, unless something entirely unexpected happens, will not increase any time soon.
Amalgamating parishes and closing churches is not a solution to the priest shortage but merely a response to it.
However, the biggest tragedy of all is that the Catholic Church does not appear to have even a Plan A as to how to face up to the shortage of clergy, not to mind a Plan B.
Possible radical solutions, such as redefining what we mean by priesthood, is not being discussed.
Even the possibility of ordaining worthy married men or of extending the ordained ministry to women are not options.
And all the while the church continues on its merry way, closing churches here, twinning parishes there, and asking overstretched priests to take on more and more.
And so Fr Tom soldiers quietly on, silently wondering what will happen in another few years, when he will be old and burned out and, unlike the Energiser Bunny, simply won't be able to keep on going.
Gerard Moloney is editor of Reality, the monthly magazine published in Ireland by the Redemptorist congregation.