INSIDE POLITICS:FF's failure to make an impact in opposition has produced a vacuum which may be filled by SF and left-wing parties
ENDA KENNY and his Government are facing a moment of truth at the end of next month. A referendum defeat on the fiscal treaty would damage the Coalition’s credibility beyond repair, never mind the harm it would do to the country’s prospects of long-term recovery.
The latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll has come as a rude awakening for the Coalition. The problem is that its long honeymoon has ended at precisely the time it needs to exercise authority in the national interest.
The steep decline in confidence in the Government is a direct result of a series of own goals over the past month. The complacency that marked the introduction of the household charge was followed by squabbles between Ministers and bungling over water meters just as the poll was being conducted.
That outcome of that campaign is wide open, as the poll demonstrates. It will take a strong coherent campaign by the Government parties to ensure a Yes vote. It will need more than leaflet drops to convince voters that their best interests lie in voting for the treaty and sticking with the programme designed to bring the public finances to order.
A hard slog around the doorsteps by Labour and Fine Gael TDs and their supporters will be required to get the vote out. The failure of Brian Cowen and his Fianna Fáil colleagues to deliver a Yes vote to the Lisbon Treaty first time around was a signal of impending destruction. And that message should not be lost on Fine Gael and Labour.
It will take a combination of political acumen and hard graft to secure a Yes vote in the referendum. Failure is likely to mean the Coalition crumbles far earlier than anyone expects, and both parties will suffer the consequences.
One of the key findings of the poll is that the new political order which emerged last year following the collapse of Fianna Fáil could prove to be a short-term phenomenon. Even more dramatic changes in the political landscape are possible if the Coalition parties fluff their opportunity.
It is instructive to look at the core vote of the parties before the massive 25 per cent of undecided voters are excluded. The combination of Sinn Féin on 15 per cent and Independents and smaller parties on 13 per cent, when added to the substantial block of undecided voters, comes out at 53 per cent.
It means that more than half of the electorate does not see itself as supporting any of the three traditional parties which have governed the State since its foundation.
It would be dangerous to read too much into this as a large chunk of undecided voters don’t actually turn out to vote, and distributing them proportionally across the political spectrum can lead to an overestimation of support for parties like Sinn Féin. Nonetheless, the drift away from the mainstream parties in this poll could be a harbinger of things to come.
Fianna Fáil’s failure to make headway has left the Opposition field open to Sinn Féin and smaller left-wing parties. That points to a potential opening for a new political force that could challenge Fine Gael and Labour from a more mainstream position.
The positive side for the Coalition is that after the exclusion of undecided voters, Fine Gael and Labour combined still emerge with 46 per cent support. That is still a relatively healthy position for the Government, but the figures have very different implications for each of the parties.
Fine Gael at 33 per cent remains well ahead of all other parties and has entrenched its position as the party of middle Ireland following the decline of Fianna Fáil. Its middle-class vote is solid and its traditional farming support has grown stronger.
Taoiseach Enda Kenny is ahead of all other political leaders in terms of satisfaction rating, and that will be a source of strength to the Government.
However, Labour is beginning to suffer from being in power at a time of austerity. The party is caught between its inclination to resist spending cuts and the need to get the public finances in order. The real danger is that by delaying cuts it will end up having to take the blame for tough decisions at the next election before the benefits from those economies have trickled through to the economy. The party may also be suffering from its association with senior-level public sector pay and pensions. The poll shows strong support among the electorate for modifying if not scrapping the Croke Park agreement. Even though protecting the agreement is a key part of Labour strategy, party voters are even more hostile to it than supporters of any other party.
There is nothing in the poll for Fianna Fáil to cheer about, which is hardly surprising as the party has not made any serious impact in Opposition.
It is trapped between wanting to attack the Government for unpopular decisions while many of those decisions were taken while it was in office. Squaring that circle is proving very difficult.
Sinn Féin has no difficulty in attacking the Coalition and is making substantial gains. The concentration of extra support in the lower income group who tend not to vote in large numbers means, however, that potential gains at election time could be overestimated.
For instance, the party was on 15 per cent two months before the last general election but it secured just under 10 per cent on polling day. In the presidential campaign last October, it was on 18 per cent a few weeks before the vote but Martin McGuinness ended up with 13.5 per cent. The party is on the rise but how far that will take it is unclear.
The outcome of the May 31st referendum will be the clearest guide as to what the future has in store for Irish politics.