INSIDE POLITICS:The Taoiseach's future success hinges on his ability to emulate Ahern's popularity in working-class Dublin, writes Stephen Collins.
AFTER A year in power, Fianna Fáil has managed to get the public to allow it to start all over again with a clean slate for its new leader. According to the latest Irish Times opinion poll, the party is enjoying the level of support it won in the election. Moreover, the slide that followed last year's victory has been reversed.
It is a comfortable starting position for the new Taoiseach and his revamped Cabinet. The public is prepared to give Brian Cowen a honeymoon - the only question is whether it can be sustained, and for how long.
It was hardly a surprise that Fianna Fáil got a bounce after the wall-to-wall media coverage of Ahern's departure, which lasted for over a month, and the positive publicity attending Cowen's elevation. It is the extent of the bounce, however, that is really encouraging for the party.
That it could recover the ground lost in the hurly-burly of a year's hard political slogging, not to mention the questions surrounding its former leader's personal finances, is a testament to the resilience of the party. Cowen now has a solid platform to begin a four-year term in office, with every chance of winning a second term at the end of it.
Of course everything will depend on how he governs now that he is in the driving seat. He certainly demonstrated a sure political touch in his Cabinet composition but it could be argued that he shirked the challenge of firing some of his Ministers, while his junior ministerial shuffle was certainly far too timid.
By steering clear of bloodletting Cowen managed to avoid creating dangerous enemies in the party. However, he may never get a better chance to give newer TDs a chance to show what they can do with ministerial office.
At another level his changes failed to set an example to the public at a time when tough medicine is about to be administered to all. If Cowen had cut the ludicrously high number of junior mnisters from 20 to 15 or even 17, it would have sent a clear signal that he was prepared to lead by example - by inflicting some pain on the ruling political class.
While there is a general expectation that he will set an example by refusing to implement the lavish pay rises for himself and his Ministers, it would also have made sense for him to demonstrate that he is serious about public service reform by cutting the number of junior ministers, many of whom have no real job to begin with.
The new Taoiseach has started off with a very solid satisfaction rating of 52 per cent in the poll. It represents a big jump from the 40 per cent obtained in the last poll in January by Ahern, but it is a far cry from the 60 per cent-plus poll ratings obtained by the former taoiseach until his fall from grace.
Cowen is considerably weaker in Dublin than in other regions and if that trend worsened over time it could become a cause of concern. One of the problems the Fine Gael leader, Enda Kenny, has in maximising his impact is that he has never really cracked it in Dublin.
One of the features with satisfaction ratings in polls is the discipline of Fianna Fáil voters who always support their own leader and express dissatisfaction with the leader of the main Opposition party. The contrast in the attitudes of supporters of the two biggest parties is striking. When it comes to Cowen's satisfaction rating he, not surprisingly, gets a 72 per cent approval rating from Fianna Fáil voters. What is surprising is that he gets a 42 per cent rating from Fine Gael voters and only 22 per cent of them express dissatisfaction.
However, when it comes to Kenny's rating 56 per cent of Fianna Fáil voters express dissatisfaction with the way he is doing his job and that is the main factor in driving down his rating. The problem is not unique to Kenny.
Fianna Fáil voters responded in exactly the same way to his predecessors Michael Noonan, John Bruton and even to Alan Dukes.
The real test for Fine Gael will be whether it can hold on to four European Parliament seats next year and increase its number of councillors. It will need to push its support back up towards a consistent level of in or around 30 per cent to be able to achieve that ambition.
Labour leader Eamon Gilmore has something to smile about in the poll because not only has his rating continued to rise but his party is also up, and that is far more important. Labour's rise in Dublin may well be linked to the departure of Ahern which has given the party an opening to woo the working-class vote in the city.
In tandem with Labour's rise, Sinn Féin and the Greens have fallen back and that is equally significant.
If Labour is well ahead of both smaller parties when it comes to voting in next year's local elections the party will be able to mop up many extra seats.
The Greens have fallen back for the first time since they went into power with Fianna Fáil a year ago. The party braced itself for a slump after going into power and was pleasantly surprised when it didn't emerge. Why it should suddenly manifest itself a year later is not clear, particularly as the party's two Ministers generate a great deal of publicity, much of it soft-focus material on climate change and energy conservation.
The way in which Green Party leader John Gormley emphasised his support for Ahern and then for Cowen in the Dáil debate on the nomination of the new Taoiseach may have alienated some supporters.
The party's reversal of policy on the European Union doesn't seem to be the problem as a clear majority of its voters are saying Yes to Lisbon.
If the drop to 4 per cent is a once-off it will not have any long-term significance but if the Greens do not push on in the next few polls the party could be in for a drubbing in next year's elections.
The poll news is also bad for Sinn Féin and does not augur well for the party's chances of holding its European Parliament seat in Dublin. The 6 per cent rating is the lowest in an Irish Times poll for almost a decade and its opposition to the Lisbon Treaty may well have backfired. The news is even worse for the PDs, and the ambition of new leader Senator Ciarán Cannon to increase the party's number of council seats looks like a very tall order.