Chief Moshood Abiola's death has deprived Nigeria of the man who came closest to being a national political leader. In a country riven by ethnic, geographical and religious divisions, his popularity was remarkable. When military intervention annulled the presidential elections in 1993, he was clearly leading in every region, though polling more strongly in the south-western Yoruba area which includes the commercial capital, Lagos.
Remarkably, both Chief Abiola and President Sani Abacha, the military dictator who imprisoned him, have died in the space of a single month. Given his imprisonment and the murder of his wife, it is hardly surprising that the instinctive response of Chief Abiola's political colleagues has been to claim foul play.
The rioting and mayhem which have followed the announcement of his death, while impossible to condone, are understandable on the part of large numbers of people whose joyous expectation of their leader's release has been dashed by his unexpected demise. The United Nations Secretary General, Mr Kofi Annan, had been in Lagos last week to negotiate with the country's military ruler, Gen Abdulsalam Abubakar, for Chief Abiola's release and had stated that the Chief would no longer insist on claiming the presidency. This was vehemently rejected by Chief Abiola's family and supporters.
Mr Thomas Pickering, the US under-secretary of state for political affairs, and a former ambassador to Nigeria and to Moscow, was with Chief Abiola at the onset of the fatal heart attack and had travelled to Nigeria to urge the release of all political prisoners, the calling of new elections, and an end to military rule. It was significant, however, that new elections rather than the installation of Chief Abiola as president on his 1993 mandate, were the preferred options of both Mr Annan and Mr Pickering as a solution to the political stalemate. Western powers were believed to have strong reservations about Chief Abiola's calls for reparations for the slave trade and allegations that his fabulous wealth may have been due in part to connections with Nigerian drug cartels.
While Chief Abiola was unquestioningly supported by such large numbers of Nigerians, new elections might have been difficult to institute. His death has, ironically, made them more likely to be accepted. His family's move to call in pathologists from outside Nigeria to perform an autopsy on the dead leader, despite Islamic calls for an immediate interment, may also help calm the situation if it succeeds in convincing his supporters that he did die of natural causes.
In the meantime, Nigeria remains dangerously unstable and Mr Annan's mission may have contributed to that instability. The immediate release of Chief Abiola, who could have spoken to his supporters about his intentions, would have been far more likely to calm the situation than any hearsay evidence of the Chief's intentions or behind-the-scenes deals on a conditional release.
The task now facing the United Nations and the United States - which is a major importer of Nigerian oil - is to convince Gen Abubakar to continue releasing political prisoners and to create a situation stable enough for new elections to be held.