In three days time, the people of Cyprus will have an opportunity to decide their future. The choice is stark: voting Yes in a referendum to the United Nations plan on offer will bring an end of sorts to a 30-year-old division of the island; saying No will more than likely ensure that the status quo remains intact for the foreseeable future.
The Cyprus problem dates back to 1974 but has its origins in centuries old enmity between Greeks and Turks. The Mediterranean island gained independence from Britain in 1960 under a carefully crafted if imperfect accommodation that saw Greeks and Turks share power on a roughly 70/30 ratio basis, reflecting the ethnic divide. In 1974 the colonels junta in Athens sponsored a coup in Nicosia and installed as president a psychotic, extreme right-wing killer, Nicos Sampson, a fanatical believer in enosis, or full Cypriot union with Greece.
It was hardly surprising - though reprehensible - that after eight days, the Turkish army invaded to protect, as Ankara saw it, the ethnic Turkish population. The Turks seized roughly one-third of the northern part of the island and thousands of families - on both sides - lost homes, farms, businesses and worse. For 30 years the division has remained, with no one, bar mainland Turkey, recognising the self-proclaimed Republic of Northern Cyprus. The Greek southern part of the island has largely prospered and EU membership beckons on May 1st. The Turkish occupied northern area is mired in stagnation.
It can be argued that over decades both communities have been badly served by their respective political leaders. Intransigence has been the orthodoxy, particularly on the part of the Turkish Cypriots, as personified by their leader, Mr Rauf Denktash. A more realistic, forward looking approach by the new government in Ankara held out the prospect of real movement. The focus of that hope was the plan, drawn up by the UN secretary-general, Mr Kofi Annan, for a Swiss-style federation, recognised internationally and all within the European Union. But nine days of talks in Switzerland failed to find agreement on it.
On Saturday, the people will have their say in a UN-sponsored referendum on Mr Annan's plan. Opinion polls suggest Turks will vote Yes while Greeks will reject the plan, although there is some evidence that opposition is softening. If the plan is indeed rejected, it is unlikely that serious effort at a settlement will be made in the foreseeable future. The UN and Europe will move on; Greek-dominated southern Cyprus will enter the EU and northern Cyprus will remain in a twilight zone, a shadow over Turkey's ambitions for EU membership.