There is no doubt that the present security situation provides an opportunity for restructuring the British army garrison presence in Northern Ireland. The military has built up a structure that is designed to cope with the worst levels of violence encountered in the North. But the structure has, to an extent, become unacceptably intrusive on a society enjoying increasing levels of normality.
Overall command comes under the General Officer Commanding (GOC), Sir Rupert Smith, who is based in a substantial headquarters complex at Thiepval Barracks, Lisburn.
The military structure consists of three brigades: 39th Brigade covering Belfast and the eastern land area; 8th Brigade based in Ebrington Barracks, Derry, which covers the areas west of the Bann; and 3rd Brigade based in Drumadd Barracks, Armagh, covering the Border area from south Armagh to Fermanagh.
There are another 12 substantial barracks, five garrison camps, 19 purpose-built permanent vehicle checkpoints (PVCPs) and 13 purpose-built surveillance towers on hilltops in south Armagh.
In addition, the Royal Irish Regiment (RIR), which is raised almost exclusively from Protestant areas of Northern Ireland, has a further 11 barracks. There are also 11 Territorial Army and Army Cadet Force camps in the North which have no real input into the security equation but which add to the further militarised impression of the area.
The RUC has 160 barracks and other installations, most of which are heavily fortified. And in nationalist areas many of the RUC barracks are used jointly by the police and army.
Officially, Sir Rupert has at his disposal a troop strength of 16,000 (this includes around 5,000 members of the RIR). However, it is not clear if this is the real number of troops deployed in Northern Ireland or if it includes regular troops who are serving elsewhere but are available for service there if the need arises.
At the height of the Troubles in the mid-1970s the British army had almost 30,000 troops in the North. But at the worst point there could be up to 10,000 shooting incidents, almost 2,000 bombings and up to 500 fatalities in a year, more than the equivalent of an Omagh bomb every month.
The military combines with a police presence, also mostly armed, of 8,500 regular RUC and 4,300 reserve RUC to give a total security establishment of almost 30,000. This is a security presence designed to cope with most eventualities likely to arise in what, in military terms, is referred to as a "low intensity conflict"; in other words, a conflict which is serious enough to cause severe casualties but well below the level of conventional warfare.
The removal in the past week of soldiers patrolling in Belfast and south Derry and the departure of about 1,000 troops of the 1st Battalion the Highlanders and 39th Regiment Royal Artillery show how the security presence can be scaled down quickly and significantly without any apparent adverse security impact.
Announcements that the army will remove some of its checkpoints and surveillance posts or amalgamate barracks are expected soon. If this happens it can be taken that both British and Irish intelligence consider that the risk of terrorism has really reduced.
The British military presence in nationalist areas should have decreased dramatically already but for the continued threat posed by the "Real IRA" group which carried out the Omagh bombing on August 15th.
Before Omagh the "Real IRA" had carried out a series of mortar attacks on security bases and was showing clear signs of becoming a serious threat.
The rise of the "Real IRA", particularly in the Border area and in south Armagh, it could be said, stopped the demolition of the surveillance towers in the area. They are still in operation and are serviced by helicopters.
The continuing, if very diminished, republican threat has also meant that the RUC still feels the need for military support in Border areas, so military patrolling of these nationalist areas is likely to continue for some time.
On the other side of the political map, the scale of the loyalist assault on the Garvaghy Road area was such that, despite its resources, the RUC temporarily deferred control of the front-line response to the British army's 1st Parachute Regiment on the second day at Drumcree.
There was little nationalist comment on the fact that the army unit responsible for opening fire on demonstrators on Bloody Sunday in 1972 was being deployed by the British government against loyalists in 1998.
Events like Drumcree and the possible resurrection of a paramilitary republican threat are likely to distort the policing and security picture in Northern Ireland, possibly for years to come.
The unpredictability of the security situation also dims the prospects for dramatic changes to the RUC arising from Chris Patten's Commission of Inquiry into the Force which is due to report next year.
To bring about a situation where RUC reform and "demilitarisation" of the North can proceed, it appears that the Irish Government is fielding considerable Garda resources against the last remaining republican paramilitary group to refuse to call a ceasefire, the Continuity IRA.
There is evidence that this assault on the Continuity IRA is already taking place. This small and relatively amateur group is associated with the fringe political party, Republican Sinn Fein (RSF). The party yesterday complained that in the past week there has been a sustained assault on its members by the Garda.
The Government now appears to be engaged in an end-game to mop up the last remnants of "physical force" republicanism on this island.