Trust and credibility are the cornerstones of effective government. They are in short supply as the talks on the future of Northern Ireland got going this week and have been further eroded by the continuing police investigation into two recent murders there which raise the issue of whether the IRA still exists. Yesterday's arrest of Bobby Storey, chairman of Northern Sinn Féin, has led to calls by DUP leaders for the suspension of the power-sharing executive. This is a bad start to a fraught process, but should not be allowed undermine it. Together with welfare budgets, the issue should be capable of completion within the suggested time frame of six weeks.
That loss of trust and credibility has been enhanced by two murders and the ambivalent response to them. The Irish and British governments share responsibility, since a key part of the ambiguity involved in the Belfast Agreement settlement allowed the IRA survive as a withering husk to guard against any revival of dissident activity. Their recent denunciations of organisational continuity are more categorical, as are those of the respective parties; but the police investigations tell a tale that badly needs to be clarified and put to rest. It has not helped that political parties North and South bid up the issue ahead of Irish and Stormont elections.
Objectively and materially the welfare budget question is more difficult to resolve. It exposes the limitations of devolution confronted by a Westminster Conservative government determined to downsize the British state and unwilling to allow Stormont set precedents for resisting that in Scotland or Wales. Sinn Féin's refusal to implement cuts is attracting substantial fines and now a threat by Secretary of State Theresa Villiers to impose the cuts from Westminster. The impasse is also holding up implementation of what was agreed on flags and emblems in the Stormont House agreement last December.
All this is negotiable if the parties really want power-sharing to survive. Restoration of an independent monitoring body to report on paramilitaries and their activities should go a long way to deal with the renewed doubts and ambiguities surrounding that question. The welfare issue is more intractable. Sinn Féin opposes the cuts in part because it fears charges of inconsistent hypocrisy in the North and South. Imposition or phasing in of the cuts might get it over the difficulty. The parties should optimise the economic opportunities arising from last December’s deal. And they could revive plans for a civic forum to engage better with citizens.
If they are to retain public credibility they also need to prepare Northern voters for greater possible shocks to come from the UK's forthcoming referendum on the European Union and from the intensive dynamic of deeper devolution, or renewed calls for Scottish independence.