Following one of the most depressing election campaigns in decades, people will go to the polls today to choose what party or parties will form a government in the 32nd Dáil.
Based on research data, the primary focus of voters will be on local issues and the quality of individual candidates, rather than on leadership of the country. Disillusionment with the main parties, along with a dramatic rise in support for Independents and Others, has been the defining narrative of recent weeks.
Having experienced economic collapse, followed by a troika restructuring programme and falling living standards, there was an expectation that political behaviour would change. But the longer this Coalition Government remained in office, the more it slipped back into traditional ways.
“Keeping the recovery going” might be its agreed election refrain, but Fine Gael’s early commitments to abolish the universal social charge and to allocate yet-unearned revenues brought with them full-blown auction politics. Having opened that Pandora’s box at a time of partial economic recovery and uncertain international conditions, the tone was set for competing parties.
Few would deny that the Government did a good job in reviving the economy and creating employment in extremely difficult circumstances. Five years ago, a suggestion that a growth rate of seven per cent might be achieved would have been dismissed as fantasy.
So would the notion that Ireland could borrow 10-year money at one per cent interest. These positive developments appear to have spawned the notion that all is now under control, however, and that time-honoured political activity can resume. Would that it were so.
Spending €64 billion to rescue banks was not the only burden from the financial crisis. A further €100 billion had to be raised to keep State services functioning. Corrective measures demanded by the troika were painful but, unlike what happened in Greece, they were implemented by Government and grudgingly accepted.
When it came, recovery was strong but uneven. In a rush to claim credit, however, the Government behaved as if the recession was over. It was a mistake that prompted unreal expectations. The cost of servicing the national debt will depress living standards and economic activity for many years.
In promoting tax cuts, the abolition of various charges and offering improved public services, politicians of all hues have played the populist card, while avoiding difficult issues. Opinion polls suggest that some form of coalition arrangement is inevitable, bringing with it compromise and revised manifesto commitments. What was on offer may not materialise.
For some within a disillusioned electorate, campaign promises have made a stone of the heart. But the outcome will be decided by votes. Whoever you are and whatever your views, it is time to have your say.