The warning from the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council that the economy is slowing and that this has implications for the public finances is important, though it remains to be seen whether the Government or the rest of the political system will pay any heed to it.
The essence of its message is that the Budget targets could be quickly thrown off course if growth was even half a percentage point lower than expected. The outlook is therefore tightly balanced and it is not the case, as it has been in recent years, that we can expect Budget targets to be easily beaten.
On the same day the IFAC reported, two other news items were also in the headlines. One was the future of water charges, not likely to be levied on many in future under the terms of an expert report. The other was the increasing demand for public sector pay hikes.
All three are related. As the IFAC pointed out, if public sector pay is to increase faster than planned, then either spending will have to be cut elsewhere or taxes will have to rise. Likewise, water investment has to be paid for somewhere. If it does not come from water charges, then it will come from general taxation.
This type of straightforward analysis is missing from much of the current political debate. If a case is to be made for higher public pay awards, then the consequences, too, have to be accepted. Where will we hike tax or cut spending to pay for it?
The IFAC report spells it out. It warns that we are slipping away from the EU budget targets. It also cautions that basing spending increase on rising corporation tax revenues is a risky business.
These revenues have shot upwards and we could, at some stage, face a sharp decline. Just like when property related tax revenues dried up during the crash, this could push the public finances into trouble.
It is important to point out that the economy continues to perform well and that employment growth, in particular, has been encouraging. But it is also vital to recognise the risks that we face. Brexit will take years to play out, but brings significant risks. The tax policies of the Trump administration also carry threats for Ireland. Against this backdrop, the Government should be taking a particularly cautious approach to the public finances.