Should the worst come to the worst, the ESRI has painted a bleak picture of the implications for Ireland of a British exit from the EU. The “most significant” economic impact would be likely to relate to trade but there would be implications too for foreign direct investment, migration and energy. It warns also of the likelihood of lower wages, higher prices, passport controls at the Border and restrictions on free movement between Britain and Ireland for work.
And, of course, the downside will be political and social as well as the more quantifiable economic. Border controls at Newry would represent a major psychological setback to the coming together and growing trust of communities North and South, the emerging interdependence that is central to the peace process. Possible restrictions on free migration across the Irish Sea would create new barriers even within families, and narrow traditional possibilities for work. And Irish officials worry that the UK’s departure, and the loss of a political ally, would have a detrimental effect on the internal dynamics within the EU.
These are some of the theoretical scenarios from which we, and the UK, will have to negotiate our way back if prime minister David Cameron fails to win referendum endorsement of his renegotiation of the UK terms of membership. That's a big "if" and by no means a certainty. In the interim the Government will be doing its bit to "assist" the debate in Britain by supporting those Cameron EU "reforms" with which it can live, and pointing to the real advantages of staying in.
Not least, as the ESRI records, that the much-vaunted savings from no longer contributing to the EU budget are likely to be significantly outweighed by the economic costs of leaving.
That there would have to be talks to manage a Brexit in the aftermath of an Out vote is generally understood. But such discussions would primarily be between the UK and the EU. Irish concerns on issues such as borders, tariffs, and migration would be represented by the latter. This would present Dublin with a significant diplomatic challenge in terms of of special pleading to Brussels and fellow member states to preserve specific long-standing bilateral arrangements between the two islands, like the free travel area. These might not sit easily with the wider EU, although past supportive attitudes to the Northern peace process might give pause for hope. On the other hand, on trade and tariffs a common approach to negotiations might be easier to arrive at.
In setting out the potential costs of Brexit, the ESRI has cogently articulated Irish anxieties and usefully set out the wide scope of any talks that would follow an Out vote. Asked recently about the Brexit possibility, EU economics commissioner Pierre Moscovici said he did not do“what-ifs”, adding: “We all expect and want the UK to stay in the EU”. Better to prepare for the worst.