The US decision – apparently supported by Saudi Arabia – to back an invitation to Iran to join today's "Vienna II" international talks on a possible political resolution to the Syrian civil war is a welcome diplomatic landmark in a number of important respects. It will be the first time that Tehran, the main regional backer of President Bashir al Assad, attends an international summit on the four-year-long war, and at the same time represents a major setback to their bitter rivals, the Saudis and their aspirations to regional leadership.
Russia’s military intervention in support of Assad, Iran’s political rehabilitation in the wake of a nuclear deal, and an implicit shift in the west’s strategic approach all make the move propitious – indeed, necessary. Iran has been a major player as one of Assad’s key props, and its exclusion had become increasingly absurd. Simply “ignoring reality,” as one US diplomat put it recently
Russia's full-blown military engagement in the conflict has exposed an unreality in the west's insistence that Assad's removal must be a central part of the outcome of any talks. Assad's butchery of his own people made him a fundamental impediment to progress, they argued. Iran, like Russia, says it supports a political solution in Syria, but says Assad should be part of the process.
Now, however, a combination of the rise of IS, ambiguity among regional allies such as Lebanon and Egypt about the necessity for an Assad exit, and the need to make some common cause with Russia and Iran, have forced a significant reduction in the level of US and western ambitions. Now what will be sought today will be agreement on a roadmap framework for a political transition in Syria which may end with a government that is not headed by Assad. Agreement to start down such a road, diplomats argue, does not necessitate pre-agreement on the final outcome. They believe such a new international consensus is achievable, and may be sellable to Damascus.
Meanwhile at the UN western diplomats are working on Security Council resolution that would ban Assad’s use of barrel bombs. They hope it will serve to put pressure on Russia to rein in its ally.
And on the front lines in Syria and Iraq the US, mirroring the Russian presence, is preparing to escalate its engagement in the military campaign against IS by sending in ground forces to assist local forces, a clear "development" of President Obama's policy of no boots on the ground.
The subtext to the urgency, both diplomatic and military, is undoubtedly the need to help stem the flow of refugees from Syria into Europe. Reports in the last few days alone suggest that up 300,000 more will be on the road if Aleppo falls to Assad's latest onslaught. In that event, they face into an unforgiving winter, which will lead to the death of many in their ranks.