Many observers had predicted that two autonomous elections late last month might assist Spain's acting prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, in his determined effort to hang on to power, despite ever-deepening corruption scandals linked to his party. This would end nine months of political paralysis, and avert a third general election within a year. It had seemed likely that a strong performance by his conservative Partido Popular (PP) in his native Galicia, coupled with a good result on home ground for the moderate Basque Nationalist Party (PNV), might persuade the latter to lend their votes to Rajoy in Madrid. But a different, and much more dramatic, development may now open the road to Rajoy's second term as prime minister.
This was a further collapse in both regions for his main rival, the Socialist Party (PSOE), leading to an unprecedented split in the party’s leadership last week and the resignation of its leader, Pedro Sánchez, on Saturday. Sánchez had led the PSOE to its worst results ever in both recent general elections. The PP has also hit historic lows, as both ‘establishment’ parties are assailed by two newcomers, Podemos from the radical left, and the anti-corruption conservatives of Ciudadanos. However Rajoy, although he has made no serious attempts to win allies in parliament, showed significant recovery in the June election, while the PSOE lost a further five seats.
Sánchez still refused to abstain (to allow Rajoy to form a minority government), though he remained unable to form a coalition government himself. This stance was popular with many PSOE militants but fiercely opposed by the party apparatus who claimed it subverted the national interest. And now, in Galicia, and especially in the Basque Country, where the PSOE was once a very potent force, the unthinkable has happened: the party has slipped behind Podemos.
The crisis in the PSOE is a gift to Rajoy who is now likely to become prime minister as last man standing. Podemos may assume the mantle of most effective opposition party; the PSOE remains bitterly divided and may even split.