For some time the mountainous Latakia province – a warzone for a proxy war – where Turkey yesterday downed a Russian jet has been a dangerous flashpoint between the two countries. Syria's Turkmen population, ethnic Turks, Sunni Muslims whose plight has been of particular concern to Ankara, have come under repeated heavy bombardment from Russian jets on behalf of Damascus and President Assad.
In recent days the paper Hurriyet has reported that the Turkish authorities had warned Russia that they would retaliate if the raids threatened their border. Nato, of whichTurkey is a member, had also issued warnings.
The Russian plane, according to Turkmen sources, was flying a mission in support of Syrian government forces, Lebanese Hezbollah, and Iranian Shia Muslim units attacking rebel Turkmen militants and the Free Syrian Army in the area. Turkey’s National Intelligence Organisation (MIT) has also been accused, however, of involvement in clandestine arms shipments to Turkmen forces earlier this year – the latter claim they are facing ethnic cleansing.
Yesterday’s shooting-down, the location of which is still hotly disputed, was an incident clearly waiting to happen. Both countries’ forces will have been acutely aware of the sensitivities of the border area and, one would expect, ultra-vigilant about overstepping marks.
In the circumstances it is difficult not to conclude that the incident was no accident – either the overflight was a deliberate provocation to test Turkish resolve, a practice the Russians are well-known for, or Turkey is playing a dangerous game probably designed to embroil Nato more closely in the regional conflict. According to US sources the incursion by the Russian plane into Turkish airspace lasted no more than a few seconds.
Either way, it is to be hoped that both sides will see the incident, which serves neither of their interests, as a clear red line not to be crossed again. And, despite the rhetoric of leaders’ exchanges since the downing, that both will recognise the need to draw back from retaliation which could only lead to escalation and outright conflict. Both will certainly recognise the only beneficiary would be Isis.
Russia's recent decision to launch separate air strikes in Syria means Russian and Nato planes have been flying combat missions in the same air space for the first time since the second World War. It was always going to be dangerous, and lines of communication have been established to ensure that Russian and US planes, or those of their allies, did not accidentally come into conflict. Yesterday's incident will certainly result prompt a re-examination of their operational rules.
Most worryingly, however, the shooting-down and the inevitable breakdown of trust between Nato allies and Russia will undoubtedly make more difficult the challenge of effecting a common position in Syrian peace talks at Vienna.